DoomwatchTM vs. Timesizing®

Collapse trends - January, 2001
[Commentary] ©2001 Philip Hyde, The Timesizing Wire, Box 622, Cambridge MA 02140 USA (617) 623-8080

1/26/2001 omens -
  1. Things must be gettin' bad - the cheerleaders are going into overdrive -

  2. Acquisitions increase JDS loss, Bloomberg via NYT, C2.
    [Here's a headline that says it all, and you could substitute for JDS the names of at least 50% of the companies that have succumbed to takeover mania. Seems that CEOs, the self-proclaimed prophets of rugged individualism, are deeply infected with a herd mentality after all.]

  3. Wages [and benefits] showed strong gain [0.8%] in 4th quarter, AP via NYT, C4.
    [It's just that so many fewer people are getting them. ]
    ...wrapping up a year that posted the biggest annual gain in compensation costs since 1991...the Labor Dept. reported....
    [A depression always starts like this. It's time we got wise to it. (1) Lots of mergers and layoffs. (2) The profits get more and more concentrated on fewer and fewer people, and (3) they just don't have the time or the need to buy all the products they themselves are putting out, let alone the services they are offering. We get a little less happytalk further in the article -]
    A second report showed that sales of existing homes slipped 7.4% in December, to an annual rate of 4.87m units, one of a series of reports showing how the economy has weakened sharply over the last two months. Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, said today that "as far as we can judge, we have had a very dramatic slowing down." "We are probably very close to zero at this particular moment" in the first quarter, he said in testimony before the Senate Budget Committee....
    ["Zero" in what measure? If he thinks we can't go any further down, he's wishfully thinking out loud.]

1/25/2001 omens - 1/24/2001 omens - 1/23/2001 omens -
  1. Key economic index off 0.6% in Dec. - Another sign of US slowdown, AP via Boston Globe, D2.
    ...The Conference Board['s] Index of Leading Economic Indicators...fell to 108.3..\..the largest drop in five years...after drops of 0.4% in Oct. and Nov. Three consecutive declines traditionally has been seen as a signal the US economy is headed into recession.... But a Conference Board economist, Ken Goldstein, said..."the cumulative decline is...still below the threshold of what woul dbe considered a recessionary signal...."
    [Economists are such cheerleaders. "But economics is a science!" Ri-ight. But the NY Times has buried this story even deeper -]
    Indicators fell again in December, Reuters via NYT, C13.
    [Hey, at least it's on spooky page Thirteen. Plus, speaking of cheerleading, we have a lovely vulture story today -]
    American industry downsizing fuels entrepreneurial revolution - America's entrepreneurial revolution has new soldiers joining the force every day, PRNewswire 01/22/2001 15:45 EST via AOLNews via RadioTony.
    [And who, you ask, is glorying in disaster this time? None other than "The Business Opportunity & Franchise Expos" in Calif., mostly L.A. Aren't they a little behind the curve, cuz didn't we see a story recently about e-lancers getting tired of the insecurity and paperwork of biz on their own? And we wonder just how many downsizees are in a position to pony up a coupla hundred G's for a Wendy's franchise....]

  2. [Here's one that looks good at first glance, but...]
    Jobs, extra pay lift poor families, study finds, Chicago Tribune via Boston Globe, A7.
    [But gee, sez you, I thought the working poor weren't doin' so good. Well, the paradox would vanish if this headline had called a spade a spade and said "Jobs, extra charity lift poor families" -]
    Children in low-income families benefit when their parents work and receive extra income [not "pay"!] designed to "make work pay," according to a report on welfare policies released yesterday...by Manpower Demonstration Research Corp., a leading national research group that studies [but does not solve] poverty, employment, and welfare....
    [Yet another agency that owes its jobs to other people's lack of them. We at the Timesizing.com Party take the breathtaking view that our whole society and economy is distorted by gross and grotesque (and global) labor surplus and that the much touted "labor shortage" is nothing more than a SKILLS shortage due to the fact that employers by now are way too spoiled to bother with anything so inefficient as training. Our reading of history indicates there are only three ways out of this - (1) actual war, the bigger the better, to kill off the surplus labor, (2) preparation for war, that Hitler used successfully 1933-36 in Deutschland and the Republicans used successfully here in the 1980s and give every indication of trying again shortly, (3) killing off surplus labor hours without killing off labor - by cutting the workweek (we call our flexible market-oriented version " Timesizing"), preferably with the added feature of reinvesting overtime automatically into training and hiring.]

  3. [One of Clinton's stupider moves (or how much$$$ did he get?) -]
    Prosecutors not consulted on a [last-minute Clinton] pardon, by Patrick McGeehan, NYT, A16.
    ...Marc Rich, the commodities trader who has been a fugitive for almost two decades...fled to Switzerland in 1983 after he was charged with 51 counts of conspiracy, tax evasion, racketeering and trading with the enemy....
    [But gee, we just didn't seem to be able to extradite him. What a surprise! The foto caption says he "disappeared" in 1983. Ri-i-ight. As Gail Collins says in her today's op ed "Forgiveness at any price," NYT, A27, "The aptly named Mr. Rich has been living large in tiny Switzerland, resisting extradition and sending signals that he was willing to cough up any amount of money to make the case go away as long as he was assured he would not have to spend a single day in prison." Thanks, Bill, you slimeball. What will this country have to go thru to have a contest between the likes of Nader, Bradley and McCain instead of Clinton and Dole or Gore and Bush - a brain transplant? (or brain IMplant?)]

1/22/2001 omens - 1/19/2001 omens -
  1. Fuel costs and labor strife reduce earnings at 3 airlines, Reuters via NYT, C5.
    ...In a separate development, a federal appeals court in Atlanta ordered a lower court to grant a request by Delta to end a "no-overtime campaign" by some of the carrier's unionized pilots. In its ruling, the US Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit reversed a district court's decision in December declining Delta's request for an injunction against the Air Line Pilots Association [saying] the union "has not done enough to fulfill its statutorily mandated duty" to maintain its labor agreement and avoid an "interruption to commerce."...
    [We call for a boycott of Delta, whose spoiled, inept and irresponsible executives and managers "have not done enough to fulfull" their responsibility for passenger safety by guaranteeing well-rested pilots with no habitual overtime shifts. "Fly Delta for Death!"]

  2. ["American executives are truthful" Dept. -]
    Executive won't testify to SEC, by Floyd Norris, NYT, C6.
    ...Rodney Boone..\..president of the Loch Harris Corp., a small Texas company whose share price soared briefly last year after the company said it had developed a technology to detect land mines, has invoked his protection against self-incrimination to avoid testifying about the accuracy of those claims.... [It also made claims] about another technology...which [it said would] revolutionize the manufacturing of semiconductors....

  3. The military drain, letter to editor by Prof. Erik Brynjolfsson of MIT's Sloan School of Mgmt, NYT, A30.
    Secretary of Defense-designate Donald H. Rumsfeld wants to increase military spending (front page, Jan. 12). But according to the Center for Defense Information, the United States already spends more on the military than the next 12 biggest spenders combined, and most of those countries are our allies.
    The United States outspends Russia, which has the second highest expenditures, by more than 5 to 1, and accounts for a greater share of world military spending than it did at the peak of the Reagan buildup.
    Spending more on weapons takes away resources from our real strength: a healthy and educated citizenry.
    [It's the Great Republican Makework Campaign! "If war's so good for the economy, why wait?!" The alternative? Withdraw manhours from the job market by cutting the workweek, not building the military.]

1/18/2001 omens - 1/13/2001 omens - 1/11/2001 omens - 1/10/2001 omens - boy, are we pathetic! - look at what we're doing to (ourselves and) the powerless among us in an age of unprecedented work&time-saving technology - this is progress??? -
  1. Calls for change in the scheduling of the school day - Adding hours, months - New standards and lifestyles are causing re-evaluations of traditional system, by Jodi Wilgoren, NYT, front page.
    The newest educational mantra may as well be: Never let them leave the building.
    [Yeah, WHY are we bothering to have kids at all if we're working 24/7 and we never have any time for them?!]
    Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York wants Saturday classes. The state's governor, George E. Pataki, says students shoud stay in school until after dark. And in California, Gov. Gray Davis plans to tack 30 days onto the academic year - stretching it by 17% - for middle school students fallen behind in an era of mounting expectations.
    [That's "mounting" in the sense of "intensifying," "stressing" - not in the sense of "rising," "progressing."]
    ...[There's] a mounting sense that America's school schedule - which was based not on educational needs but on those of an agrarian economy - should be ripped up and redrawn.
    [Oh come on, they're not talking about "educational needs" even now - just the so-called "needs" of a self-hating nation plunging itself backward in progress by working longer and longer hours.]
    "Our traditional school calendar has simply outlived its usefulness," said Ray Teixera, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, a public policy research group based in Washington that published a paper last summer on the concept of all-day, all-year schools. "This ideological limit on what schools can do and when they can be open is so clearly a remnant of the past," Mr. Teixera added. "Twenty years from now, we're going to look back on the way schools are today and have been for a long time and think, 'How could anyone possibly believe that system would work?'"...
    [Well, we'll tell ya, Ray, since you don't seem to recognize that you've answered it yourself. BECAUSE IT DID WORK, AND IT WORKED VERY WELL, FOR OUR FIRST 2¼ CENTURIES - ever since 1776. And now at a time when we should be moving on to free parents up with less work that pays more and more leisure with less financial worry, we're instead piling working hours back on them that haven't been seen before 1900, and we're trying to chain their kids to their desks as well. We think we're so cool and modern but we're only a deluded herd of sweatshop workers and high-tech plantation slaves!]

  2. Migrant workers sue discount stores, by Robert Hanley, NYT, A19.
    They were a different kind of migrant worker - Mexican and Latin American immigrants traveling from job to job around the New York region at bargain-basement chain stores where everything cost a dollar or less. But the working life, they say, was no bargain. Eight of these men took their grievances to US District Court in Newark [yester]day, charging 3 NJ-based companies that operated the discount stores with failing to pay them minimum wages and proper overtime, in violation of federal and state labor laws.
    ["Pesky labor laws - let's just repeal them altogether! And the business-stifling Emancipation Proclamation while we're at it!"]
    Afterward, at a news conference..., one man, Fernando Islas, said he sometimes worked 22-hour shifts at meager wages, with only two hours off to sleep. Another, Daniel Cirio, said he was once forced to stay in a store for three days straight, preparing for its grand opening. Although employers promised him and other workers motel lodging and free meals, he said, they got one meal a day and were locked in the store at night without bedding and with only newspapers and their jackets to cover themselves.
    Jennifer Ching, a lawyer for the ACLU, which filed the lawsuit on behalf of the workers, said she believes hundreds of other workers in the region are caught up in a similar plight. [She] said each of the eight men had worked in 40 different discount stores in the late 1990's in NJ, NY and CT....
    [Wake up, Americans! Get a grip on your worktime and everything else will improve, but continue to let it slip and everything will continue to deteriorate. We picked the wrong horse in 1933.]

1/09/2001 omens -
1/06/2001 omens -
  1. Labor market remains tight, despite slowing economy, by David Leonhardt, NYT, B1.
    [Ah, shouldn't this read, "Training remains non-existent, despite slowing economy," or "Job qualifications remain stratospheric, despite slowing economy"?! In this form it simply gags anyone who would complain about getting thrown out of work. It also allows employers to deny pay raises because "the economy is slowing" (i.e., lots of people are getting downsized so shut up and be grateful you have a job - here, kiss my ring and maybe I won't fire you in the next layoff), while presenting downsizing as a real opportunity to the victims because "there are so many job opportunities out there now - as a matter of fact, we need 350,000 more visas for pretrained low-wage workers from India to fill them." In short, the NYT is hand-in-glove with wealthy employers who would have their cake and eat it too, talking out of both sides of their mouth at once, till they scarcely recognize reality themselves. But meanwhile, the game they're presenting to ordinary Americans is, "Heads we win, tails you lose." Here's another version of the same self-serving (in the short term only) doubletalk from the Boston Globe on Thursday -]
    Dot-com slowdown not stalling development, by David Bushnell, 1/04/01 Boston Globe, G1.

  2. Delta warns that earnings will fall short of estimates, by Laurence Zuckerman, NYT, B2.
    ...The airline said that about 3,500 of the cancellations stemmed from a shortage of pilots....
    [Then why don't you just HIRE SOME MORE, you morons?]
    The union says that pilots have a contractual right to refuse to fly voluntary overtime..\..
    [Ah, wouldn't anybody, contract or not, have a right to refuse to fly "voluntary" overtime simply by definition??!]
    Many pilots stopped volunteering for overtime in the fallout of frustration with the slow pace of talks..\..
    [And hopefully in concern for passenger safety, since the accident rate in the transportation industries goes way up during overtime.]
    Delta and the Air Line Pilots Assoc...have been negotiating a new contract for 17 months.
    [That's pretty long - nearly a year and a half.]
    Delta has said that it will make the pilots the best paid in the industry....
    [Well, maybe they'd rather have the time than the money. Maybe they'd rather have A LIFE. It's incredible that at the dawn of a new millennium, employers in the largest economy have suddenly gone clueless about the costs of overloading employees, especially in transportation, and for that matter, so have standard economists who totally ignore The Primary Economic Variable = Worktime per Person. And self-appointed Defenders of Freedom totally ignore The Most Basic Kind of Freedom = Free Time. How so? Because without it, none of the traditional Four Freedoms mean anything - how can they when you've got no time to exercise them?! (According to the "Four Freedoms Commemorative Issue," a bright blue-green one-cent stamp from the U.S. Post Office in 1943, the Four Freedoms were "Freedom of Speech and Worship, From Want and Fear" - which then included freedom from want of a job and from fear of losing it through no fault of your own.)]

1/05/2001 omens -
  1. [Now that Bill Gates has given us the kludgiest, patronizingest, virus-pronest, privacy-leakiest operating system of all time, he's stretching his tentacles (no offense to octopi!) beyond his Xerox-Apple ripoff -]
    New focus for Gates is consumer electronics - Microsoft bringing its tactics [ohoh] to games [you win agaaain, maaaster], by John Markoff, NYT, p. C4.

  2. [But ya gotta hand it to him. Nobody can "begrudge Bill Gates' his money." For one thing, he's got such a wonderful sense of timing -]
    Soft sales for consumer electronics during holidays, by Julian Barnes, NYT, p. C2.

1/03/2001 omens -
  1. Factory index fell sharply last month - Purchasing managers' gauge near 1991 level, by David Leonhardt, NYT, C1.
    U.S. manufacturers received sharply fewer orders, made fewer products and employed fewer workers in December than they did in the previous month, sending a closely watched index of manufacturing activity to its lowest level since 1991. Over the course of 2000, the index fell more steeply than in any year since 1979, according to a report released yesterday by the National Assoc. of Purchasing Mgmt. Last month, the index stood at 43.7 [revised upward to 44.3 per "Factory activity revised upward," Reuters via 1/16/01 Boston Globe, D3], down from 47.7 in November, suggesting that the overall economy was growing at a rate of less than 1% a year, based on historical patterns, the Association said. A reading above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing, while a reading below that level indicates a contraction....
    [We've seen that two thirds of the economy is supported by the consumer spending. Now we learn that on the production side -]
    The one-fifth of the economy devoted to manufacturing has already fallen below the stage of slow growth and is now shrinking, according to the index....
    [And here's why -]

  2. 'Dirty fingernails' 80 hours a week, pointer digest (to C6), NYT, C1.
    [aka Work Hogs Unltd. - your top executives (and physicians and lawyers) funnelling all the market-demanded employment onto as few people as possible, making a joke of "labor-saving" technology -]
    Wade Dokken, the CEO of American Skandia, a financial services concern in Shelton, Conn...describes his management style as "dirty fingernails" and works 80 hours a week. "The only way I see balancing work and family is I don't do social things. My life is work, children, my wife and church."
    [Is that "see" as in "see the light at the end of the tunnel"? This guy is working an average of 11½ hours a day, seven days a week, which is the level that plantation slaves and ununionized mill workers worked over 150 years ago. And he thinks he's got a life, let alone a family life? What good is modern technology doing him or his family? What is he teaching his children? The only message his church can possibly have for him while he's in this mode is, "What shall it profit a man if he shall gain the whole world and lose his own soul?" Dokken is a doofus, adraggin' us all back to the sweatshops and the slave marts. A true "man of the 19th century." And funnelling the work funnels the spending power - onto people who don't need to spend it. So much for consumer spending - ergo, the factory index goes down and we drift toward depression. 'member "no tickee, no washee"? (dwei buchi to our Chinese friends). Well now the word is, "No workee, no spendee." And the more we downsize instead of timesizing, the less we work, earn and spend.]

1/02/2001 omens -
  1. Russia's health-care emergency, editorial, NYT, A18.
    One of the most devastating consequences of Russia's mismanaged passage to a market economy over the last decade has been the virtual collapse of its health care system. Soviet-era conditions were poor, with long waits, brusque bureaucracy and uneven standards of care. But today's problems are more fundamental. Public hospitals and clinics lack the most basic medicines and equipment and are nearly overwhelmed by an increasingly sick population....

  2. [And speaking today (1/02/2001) of moving jobs from low-wage Hungary to almost no-wage China -]
    China is seen sacrificing safety, by Martin Fackler, AP via Boston Globe, A6.
    ...[evidenced by] a recent rash of accidents..\.. ...China's all-out push for economic development is breeding a get-rich-quick attitude that produces dangerously shoddy goods, buildings without escape routes, even rice laced with deadly chemicals that make it appear whiter....
12/31/2000-1/1/2001  weekend omens -
  1. 1/1  Job struggle for women in Japan, pointer digest (to A4), NYT, C1.
    As Japan contemplates a huge labor shortage in the very near future...
    [Huh? Japan's heading down for another dose of depression, characterized by grotesque labor surplus, not "shortage." Check out "Unemployment rises and spending falls in Japan" below on 12/27. Whose pipedream is this 'huge labor shortage' in Japan? It's about a real as our 'huge labor shortage' which is nothing but employers getting too spoiled to train, loosen up their job qualifications, raise their pay or lower their hours, or acknowledge our huge population of under-employed! Instead they'd rather bring in 100,000s of young low-wage 24/7 workers from India and prepare to really expand our "working poor."]
    ...the society has shown greater readiness to contemplate even large-scale immigration - long one of the country's biggest taboos - rather than moving quickly to provide equal opportunities for Japanese women, who are still being shunted off in large part onto the secretarial track or other deadend jobs.
    [As long as employers take the short-term 'drugs' of immigration and downsizing, instead of a worksharing approach like Timesizing, whether the demand for human workhours goes - or whether it goes down - they will continue to weaken their own consumer base and their own markets. The target article is by Howard French, "Diploma in hand, Japanese women find glass ceiling reinforced with iron."]

  2. 12/31  Modern life - The time crunch - About 50% would be will be willing to give up a day's pay for a day off - About 40% of workers say they come home from work exhausted ... that represents a 15% increase from 1989 - 30% of workers 'always' feel rushed - Another 53% 'sometimes' feel rushed, by Bella English, Boston Globe, D1.
    [This isn't 'modern life.' This is old, very old. And the percentage willing to give up pay for time off a couple of years ago was 66%.]
    ...Americans now spend more time workig than people in any other country on earth except Japan....
    [Nope, we now beat Japan in terms of working hours per year.]
    A generation ago President Nixon predicted that the United States would one day go to a four-day workweek because of increasing productivity and advancing technology.
    [VP candidate Nixon called for a four-day week on the stump in Colorado Springs in 1956 - Pres. candidate Eisenhower quickly muzzled him. The Technocrats in the 1920s predicted four 4-hour days, a 16-hour week. Arthur Dahlberg in 1932 predicted four 5-hour days, a 20-hour week. In 1933, the United States Senate passed a 30-hour workweek of five 6-hour days in the Black Bill but FDR, incomprehending, obstructed it in the House, much to his own regret as early as two years later. By then he had thrown up the whole hodgepodge jerrybuilt "New Deal" with one goal in mind - to block the 30-hour bill.]
    Ironically, those two factors [increasing productivity and advancing technology] have speeded life up instead of slowing it down.
    [No they haven't. Our assumption that the workweek will shorten magically all by itself has. It never shortened by itself. It always had to be fought for by employees, and then deliberately designed and legislated. The first known case in history is the Fourth Commandment of Moses, "Six days shalt thou labor and do all thy work, but the seventh is the sabbath of the Lord thy God. In it thou shalt not do any work." This is from chapter 20 in Exodus, the second book of the first five (Pentateuch/Torah) in the Old Testament/Hebrew Bible of The Holy Bible, and records a period estimated roughly at around 1500 BC, 3500 years ago. So if you think shortening the workweek is Socialist! or Communist!, then you must think the God of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob/Israel and Jesus Christ is a Socialist and a Communist. We don't think it's even socialism, which is a burgeoning maximum of stifling detailed controls. We think it's the capitalism of the future - a stable minimum of liberating generalized controls, theoretically just one.]
    "...We're not taking..\..all that productivity...in terms of leisure activity," says Betsy Taylor...of the *Center for a New American Dream in Takoma Park, Md., a nonprofit organization that promotes responsible consumption..\.."We're taking [it] in the form of material goods...."
    [No, we're not. We're taking more and more of it in the form of higher and higher executive pay and astronomically concentrated income and wealth, and those people just don't have the time or the need to spend it. And therein lies the mechanism of economic depression. Betsy Taylor is taking the same line as Juliet Schor recently. But as income and wealth funnel to the top income brackets - the top ONE percent of Americans now own as much as the 'bottom' NINETY-FIVE percent - our problem becomes under-consumption, not over-consumption. We are simply working far too much with far too great efficiency for our still primitive mechanisms that centrifuge profit and spending power to allow us to buy or "consume." It doesn't help that in auto factories and other plants all across the country, jobs that used to be done by people earning spending power that they then turned around and used to purchase goods and services, are now being done by millions of machines and robots. And as Walter Reuther said to Henry Ford when Ford showed him his new plant and said, "Let's see you unionize these robots!" - "Let's see you sell them cars."]
    ...[Even our] homes are better equipped than ever, with "time-saving" devices such as multiple computers, reomte controls, faxes, and cell phones. We [now, however, even] take our laptops, cell[phone]s, and beepers on vacation so that we're never truly "away" [from home or work]. We pride ourselves on "multi-tasking," barely stopping to wonder where it all leads [or when's the payoff].
    "People are starved for time," says Taylor, "especially households where you have two working parents. There's such a pressure-cooker feeling to day-to-day life. You don't have permission to stop. In fact, you feel guilty if you do."
    Today, many Americans are feeling more time-deprived than money-deprived.... In a 1998 survey \by\ John Robinson, a sociology professor at the University of Maryland...about half the respondents said yes [to the question:] "Would you be willing to give up a day's pay for a day off?"...
    The Center for a New American Dream [held] an essay contest for kids to answer the question, "What I really want that money can't buy." The winner was 14-year-old Erika Conant of Johnson City, Tenn. Her answer: time. "My parents love me anda buy me many things," she wrote. "But what tells me they love me the most is when they listen to me. Things are great, but what I really want is their time. What my friends really want is their parents' time.... I do things with my mom a lot, but my dad works and sleeps. What I really want is for all parents to just spend time with their kids. America would be a happier country."...
    [And in fact, there's an article on that in the BostonWorks section, "AFL-CIO pushes for paid leave for parents - Several work issues before legislature," by Jerry Ackerman, 12/31 Boston Globe G1, but this wouldn't help Erika and other kids because its only "for parents who need time off from work to care for newborn or newly adopted children." It's like so many things in America - a subsidy for quantity, not quality. We have millions of dollars for new bridges and highways, but little for maintenance - millions for new sales, little for customer service - millions for new expeditions, little for digesting the information we have. The extreme example is the religious right, which tries to force all pregnant women everywhere regardless of anything to have their babies, but doesn't lift a finger to adopt or foster unwanted children. And right next to the time crunch article, we have an article that may be closely related -]
    'They seek to kill the company' - Workplace avengers don't just snap; they target their rage, by James Fox, Boston Globe, D1.
    It took only minutes for...Michael McDermott to [leave] seven employees...dead from gunfire....

For earlier collapse stories, click on the desired date -
  • Dec.21-31/2000.
  • Dec.11-20/2000.
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  • Dec/98.
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  • Aug/98 and before.


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