Timesizing® Associates - HOMEPAGE
Downsizings, December, 2003
[Commentary] ©2003 Phil Hyde, The Timesizing Wire, Box 117, Harvard Square, Cambridge MA 02238 USA (617) 623-8080
12/31/2003 1 downsizing, totaling 113 lost jobs and (1) uncounted economywide downsizing story, in WSJ &/or NYT -
- Radian Group plans to close unprofitable online division, Bloomberg via NYT, C4.
...Insure[r of] mortgages and municipal bonds will close...RadianExpress.com unit and lay off 113 employees in Dayton, Ohio...by March 1.... Radian...based in Philadelphia, bought the business in Oct 2000....
[Again the lethal takeover-downsizing connection.]
- The problem of their age - Older workers are fighting back against employers who favor youth, Boston Globe, D1.
At the age of 57, Emmy-award-winning reporter Paula Lyons was let go by WBZ-TV [Boston Ch.4]. Lyons is convinced the decision was made based on her age. [Photo caption. She'd still be employed if the decision was based on her award, - or on her looks - she's definitely not unphotogenic.]
12/30/2003 (1) uncounted economywide downsizing story, in WSJ &/or NYT -
- Some layoff victims find a little comfort in an odd ceremony, by Joann Lublin, WSJ, B1.
VERONA, N.J. - Christoph Grieder beamed broadly as 45 former colleagues, friends and family members stood to toast him. An accordionist burst into a spirited tune. Children pranced about the gaily decorated boat lodge here.
A promotion party? Hardly. It was a downsizing ceremony, a quirky new ritual that features testimonials from co-workers, poems and gifts....
[Pathetic.]
12/27-29/2003 1 downsizing, totaling unspecified lost jobs + (3) uncounted economywide downsizing stories, in WSJ & NYT -
- 12/29 Wizard stores face closing, Bloomberg via NYT, A15.
Wizards of the Coast, a subsidiary of Hasbro that makes trading-card and role-playing games like Magic: The Dragon and Dungeons & Dragons, [will] close its chain of retail stores [with]in about 60 days. ...Founded in 1990, [it] has about 80 Wizards of the Coast stores and affiliated Game Keeper stores.
[Unspecified lost jobs.]
- 12/29 The white-collar blues - Who's next out the exit door?, op ed by Bob Herbert, NYT, A21.
I am surprised at how passive American workers have become.
[Guess the power gradient has become hopelessly steep.]
A couple of million factory positions have disappeared in the short time since we raised our glasses to toast the incoming century. And now the white-collar jobs are following the blue-collar jobs overseas.
Americans are working harder and have become ever more productive - astonishingly productive - but are not sharing in the benefits of their increased effort.
[So can we once and for all silence the constantly repeated myth that wages automatically rise with productivity?!!]
If you think in terms of wages, benefits, and the creation of good[-pay] jobs, the employment landscape is grim....
These matters should be among the hottest topics of our national conversation. We've already witnessed the carnage in manufacturing [and agricultural] jobs. Now with white-collar [and service] jobs at stake, we've got executives at IBM and Microsoft exchanging high-fives at the prospect of getting "two heads for the price of one" in India....
"If you take this to its logical extreme, the implications for the entire middle-class wage structure in the U.S. are terrifying," said Thea Lee, an economist with the AFL-CIO....
[USA=Third World in 15 years max.]
Accurate data on the number of jobs already lost are all but impossible to come by. But there is no disputing the trend, or the fact that it is accelerating.
Allowing this movement to continue unchecked will eventually mean economic suicide for hundreds of thousands, if not millions, or American families.
[No need for the bleeding-heart angle, it will mean suicide for the American consumer base and American CEOs and the American economy. So what's Bob's prescription? "Mitigation." In short, he doesn't have one. He's all diagnosis and no cure. Bob, wake up to the timesizing imperative.]
- 12/27 Judging 2003's ideas: The most overrated, NYT, A17.
...Capitalism, by Rebecca Solnit.
When Sitting Bull toured with Buffalo Bill's Wild West Circus, he gave his earnings to the street urchins he met, appalled that a society that could produce such wealth could permit such poverty.
[Sounds like Leacock's Riddle.]
He commented that white men were good at production but bad at distribution, a criticism of capitalism that's still trenchant.
In the wealthiest society the world has ever seen,
[not true - see neighboring "overrated" squib focusing on America itself]
education, healthcare and housing are deteriorating into speculative commodities out of reach for many, and the "economic recovery" - of what? for whom? - is jobless....
- 12/27 Free trade accord [NAFTA] at age 10: The growing pains are clear, Weiner & Becker & Krauss, NYT, front page.
- ...Goshen, Ind. - Social tensions and vanishing jobs....
- Ciudad Acuna, Mexico - A fleeting boom and disillusionment....
- Durham, Ont. - Industries forced to adapt or die
Canada was far better situated than Mexico to benefit from free trade.
[Oh yeah? Then why is the third reason -]
...They enjoy liberal unemployment benefits....
[and two sentences down -]
Progress proved wrenching for Canada as well.
[Until the plutocrats stop straining to spin progress for them and pain for everyone else as progress for everyone, the spending power will keep rushing to the top income brackets and de-activating, and the consumer base will keep weakening - that's consumer base as in plutocrats' investment base.]
It [Canada] had a separate 1988 free-trade accord with the U.S., 5 years before NAFTA. Those years were a cold shower for Canada: from 1989 to 1991, 450000 manufacturing jobs, roughly 20%, were lost.... Ontario's premier furniture manufacturers have lost about 50% of the roughly 7200 workers they had a decade ago....
[The race to the bottom continues, just as we used to say it did under Communism, because national borders are like personal borders, which we call private property. When personal borders go down, CEOs scream Communism! But when national borders go down, CEOs cheer, because now the richest among them have a bigger consumer base from which to suction and de-activate the spending power as their suicidal dash to the Black Hole economy continues. So as in George Orwell's "1984," Big Brother's New Speak says Pain is Progress, so shut up and starve while Big Brother commits suicide slowly and takes us all along, us first.]
12/26/2003 (1) uncounted economywide downsizing story in WSJ & NYT -
- It's the work, stupid, pointer (to A10), WSJ, front page.
Former labor secretary Robert Reich says it isn't the number of jobs China grabs today that matters. It's the kind [specifically, the pay] of jobs Americans will be doing tomorrow.
12/24/2003 2 downsizings, totaling 300 lost jobs + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- FAO Inc. - Attempt to sell Right Start rejected by bankruptcy court, WSJ, D4.
...The ruling will trigger liquidation sales at Right Start stores and layoffs of 300 employees....
- The death of the mall in Memphis, pointer (to A10), NYT, C1.
The Mall of Memphis, the biggest enclosed mall in the mid-South, will close tonight.
[Unspecified jobs lost.]
12/20-22/2003 (4) uncounted economywide downsizing stories in WSJ & NYT & BG (Boston Globe) -
- 12/21 Across US, jobless losing benefits - Proposals that would extend aid [fizzle in] debate , by Susan Milligan, BG, A6, flagged by colleague Kate.
More than 90,000 people who have been out of work for months will lose their federal benefits today, when a program to aid the long-term unemployed expires....
- 12/22 'New' economy [our quotes] - Offshore jobs in technology: Opportunity or a threat?, NYT, C1.
[Guess it depends how long-term you're talkin', or if you have any use for a strong domestic consumer base.]
The US economy is[?] finally getting stronger, but there seems to be one [actually two] unsettling weakness: the apparent wholesale flight of technology [and manufacturing and call-center] jobs like computer programming and technical support to lower-cost nations, led by India [and China].
The trend is typically described...as "offshore outsourcing" or "offshoring."...
[The other unsettling weakness is the Chesterton flaw = the ongoing concentration of wealth, income, work, and skills, with no concept or even consciousness of the centrifugation required for the continuity, let alone growth, of foundational consumer markets. Guess you could call the economy's two unsettling weaknesses "big leaks" -
- the Big Leak UPwards - meaning no cap on individual income or wealth, so the concentration in the top brackets can get so astronomical that it actually suctions the spending power away from the markets for the productivity it wishes to invest in - hence the dread Black Hole Economy
- the Big Leak OUTwards - meaning the fact that what we're calling "free trade" functions as trade communism (no accountability or responsibility) and let's CEOs drain one consumer base after another by repeatedly moving jobs to lower-wage&standard backwaters without losing access to what's left of the dying consumer bases they're leaving behind - wasn't it capitalism that was supposed to save us from communism's push down to the "lowest common denominator"?]
- 12/21 Surging N.H. economy alters political equation, BG, front page, flagged by colleague Kate.
[Here's what they call "surging" -]
Top employers [10 years ago and now]
1992
- DEC
- Lockheed
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Ctr
2002
- Wal-Mart
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Ctr
- DeMoulas/MarketBasket Supermarkets
- 12/20 The ownership society - On jobs, Bush takes ground once held by centrist Democrats, op ed by Bob Herbert, NYT, A35, flagged by colleague Terry Crystal.
Not long ago, a man who runs a construction company came to the White House.... He talked economic policy, then was asked how his business was going. He said things were going well. Orders were up. He'd revamped his IT system, and he'd re-engineered his production process so he'd been able to reduce his workforce to 7,200 from 9,800 [ie: 2600 jobcuts].
You can imagine the reaction as he [imparted] this final bit of "good" news. For here in a nutshell is the administration's [and the world's!] problem.
The economy is [supposedly] doing well, but because of enormous productivity gains [= the whole point of technology], it is not yet producing enough jobs to sharply reduce unemployment and ensure pResident Bush's re-election.
[Let's generalize that and remove the Valium which Bob has so uncharacteristically injected - Because of enormous productivity gains, the economy is simply not producing enough jobs to even slowly reduce unemployment which hovers a little above, a little below, 6% (even though it's been watered down repeatedly since 1945), while passing tens of thousands of long-term unemployed on to the welfare, disability, homeless- shelter and prison systems, and hiding hundreds of thousands more in forced early retirement, forced delayed retirement, forced interrupted retirement, self "employment" and part time.]
...Arthur Okun...an economist, is the author of Okun's Law, which predicts how fast the economy has to grow to reduce unemployment.
[This whole approach is invalidated by leaping technological efficiency and productivity.]
- Back in the early 1990s, economists expected that the economy had to grow faster than 2.8% to create jobs.
- Today, because of productivity gains, growth rates have to be much higher.
"This is going to change the entire economy," one senior Bush official observed. "How do we deal with it?"
[Only one sustainable way, the same way that answers Steve Roach's Riddle. Around 1994, Steve became a productivity pessimist. He'll change his mind, he says, only when businesses increase productivity and hiring simultaneously (see 12/04/2003 #2). Framing this into a question, we get, "When will businesses increase productivity and hiring simultaneously?" There's only one sustainable answer to this riddle, and it's similar to the resolution of the Ford-Reuther Paradox (Ford, "Let's see you unionize these robots!" Reuther, "Let's see you sell them cars..."). The answer is, sharing the vanishing work. In other words, stay the course and continue to regard technology as a positive because it reduces a negative, work. And take that reduction in terms of more financially-secure free time for everyone, instead of more economically-anxious un- and under-employment. If you want to do a flip and regard work as good, then you must regard work-saving technology as an evil and accept the label of Luddite. Bob Herbert, however, lists 3 irrelevant answers -]
There are essentially 3 answers to that question.
- ...The pure free-market answer, which says the market will take care of itself [except it isn't]. Productivity gains will eventually lead to job creation, and workers will learn to adapt.
[So this "solution" is essentially just "Wait" = keep suffering, and ignore the evidence of growing disabled, homeless and prison populations that the problem is cumulating.]
- ...The union's answer, which is that the job picture is stagnant because of unfair global competition.
[The unions are still clueless about technology.]
Rewrite the trade rules, and jobs will more secure.
[Trade is less than 14% of the US economy. That's just the tip of the iceberg, 67% of which is consumer demand. And unions are still ignoring the cumulative effects of downsizing on consumer demand.]
- ...Response...championed most ardently by centrist organizations like the Democratic Leadership Council: embrace the more productive and fluid economy, but make sure government aggressively moves to give workers the tools they need to cope.
[That would be worksharing, but we haven't heard anything about that from Democrats lately, so we think this third "answer" is just rhetoric = meaningless fudge.]
[Not surprisingly -]
Over the past 3 years, the Democratic Party has shifted behind the unions' approach [i.e., to work on just the tip of the iceberg, while the huge consumer base continues to weaken]. When Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean area asked about manufacturing joblosses, they talk first about unfair trade.
The Bush administration, meanwhile, is embracing its own version of the centrist Democratic approach, occupying the ground abandoned by the leftward-veering Democrats. In his State of the Union address, the pResident will announce measures to foster job creation.
In the meantime, he is talking about what he calls the Ownership Society. This is a bundle of proposals that treat workers as a self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their own capital reserves, their own retraining programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance. ...Bush has a proposal to combine and simplify the confusing morass of government savings programs and give individuals greater control over how they want to spend their tax-sheltered savings. Administration officials hope, in a second term, to let individuals control part of their Social Security pensions and perhaps even their medical savings accounts....
[The only thing that can really give ordinary people more control is to rebalance the huge power gradient between the millions of ordinary employees and the tens of thousands of employers, and in particular the mere thousands of super-wealthy CEOs. Historically, that rebalancing has happened most dramatically during world war by the withdrawal of millions of surplus working hours from the job market in the worst possible way, by killing and maiming people. But it has also happened less dramatically but more intelligently simply by cutting the workweek, as in the USA between 1938 and 1940 when the workweek was set at 44 hours and then stepped down to 40, and in France between 1997 and 2001 when the workweek was jumped down by sector and company size from 39 hours to 35.]
12/19/2003 1 downsizing, totaling 1000 lost jobs cited in WSJ & NYT -
- MeadWestvaco to close plants and cut 1,000 jobs, AP via NYT, C4.
The paper company...plans to eliminate about...3.3% of its workforce...across all corporate and business units..\..as part of a $500m initiative [this isn't an "initiative," it's an act of desperation] to improve earnings.... The company..\..based in Stamford CT...employs about 30,000 people....
12/18/2003 5 downsizings, totaling 950 lost jobs, + unspecified cited in WSJ & NYT
(not counting economy-level "A full-time job," pointer (to A16), WSJ, front page, which states, "The woman [Sawsan al-Dawad] charged with finding employment for millions of Iraqis has her work cut out for her, as the jobless grow angrier.") -
- 3Com Corp., WSJ, C11.
Computer-networking equipment maker 3Com Corp. [of] Marlborough MA..\..posted a much wider net loss in its fiscal Q2 amid a 33% drop in sales. The company also...plans to cut 900 employees [from its] 2,900-member workforce...in the second half of its fiscal year [in line with its] cost-cutting plan...to outsource all mfg operations and close its Dublin plant....
[900/2900= a 31%, evidently salesdrop-determined downsizing, that could have been done with less economic (consumer base) damage via a 31% salesdrop-determined timesizing.]
- Zhone Technologies Inc., NYT, C4.
...Oakland CA, which makes switches, software and networking equipment [plans] to close a development center in Oceanport NJ and cut about 50 jobs.
- Lehman [Bros. Holdings] plans to continue outsourcing, pointer (to C5), WSJ, front page.
...computer tasks to India despite helpdesk problems.
[Unspecified higher-paid US jobs lost.]
- Company to pay $490m for Manitoba Telecom's stake, WSJ, C11.
BCE Inc., one of Canada's biggest telecom companies...also said it plans a "modest work-force reduction."
[Unspecified jobs lost.]
- Van Der Moolen will close unit, WSJ, C12.
...its US options specialist Cohen Duffy McGowan, 2 years after buying into the company...hurt by poor market conditions in some of its markets and...probed for alleged improper trading practices \by\ the NYSE...
[Again the lethal takeover-downsizing connection. Unspecified jobs lost.]
12/16/2003 1 downsizing, totaling 1,074 lost jobs cited in WSJ & NYT
(not counting economy-level "German leader and opponents compromise on economic plan," by Mark Landler, NYT, A14, which states, " 'The big question people ask is "Will I have a job next year?" ' said Rudolf Hickel, an economist at the University of Bremen. [Yet even so,] the Christian Democrats, who control the upper house of the Parliament, forced the chancellor [Schroeder] to stick to proposed rules that would make it easier for small companies to lay off workers and would force chronically unemployed people to take jobs, even at wages lower than the industry average." - the German power elite are clearly intent on hitching their economy to the American-British race to the bottom, instead of optimizing their economy with timesizing and encysting it with tariffs until the huge downdraft in the rest of the world ends) -
- BellSouth Corp., WSJ, C13.
...plans to eliminate 1,074 jobs next quarter, but said it isn't clear how many people will be affected [because of] "the opportunity to apply for other jobs within BellSouth, plus many people will be taking our...retirement package"..\..spokesman Jeff Battcher said..\..
[That's OK, we'll take the 1074.]
The positions being cut include those lost as the company prepares for its planned exit from the pay-phone business.... BellSouth, Atlanta, employs about 76,000 people worldwide.
[So they should be doing a 1074/76000= 1.4% timesizing instead of downsizing - "CEOs of the World, Wake Up! - You Can't Get a Recovery Out of Downsizing!"]
12/13/2003 1 downsizing, totaling 4,230 lost jobs cited in WSJ & NYT
(not counting regional-source "Hey dude, where's my job," by B.J. Roche, Boston Globe, B6, which states, "Despite the Dow hitting 10,000, one holiday tradition continues this year - the poorly timed pink slip.
70 workers for the Japanese-owned sprocket maker U.S. Tsubaki will lose their jobs after the company announced it was closing its Bennington VT plant.
And Tyson Foods announced it will close processing plants in Manchester NH and Augusta ME early next year, leaving more than 700 people jobless." - counted below on 12/05/2003 #2.) -
- IBM to export highly paid jobs to India, China, by William Bulkeley, WSJ, B1.
In one of the largest moves to "offshore" highly paid US software jobs, IBM Corp. has told its managers to plan on moving the work of as many as 4,730 programmers to India, China and elsewhere.
The unannounced plan, outlined in company documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal, would replace thousands of workers at IBM facilities in Southbury CT, Poughkeepsie NY, Raleigh NC, Dallas TX, Boulder CO, and elsewhere in the US. Already, the managers have been told, IBM has hired 500 engineers in India to take on some of the work that will be moved....
[Disregarding the fact that we should be dealing in terms of average-US-job-equivalents, with a factor to correct for lower-wages in India and resulting consumer-base damage in the U.S., we'll simply deduct the new 'jobs' in India from the joblosses in the U.S., leaving us with 4730-500= 4,230 net jobcuts.]
IBM calls its plan, first presented initially to some medieval oops midlevel managers in October, "Global Sourcing." It involves people in its Application Management Services Group, a part of IBM's giant global-services operations, which comprise more than half IBM's 315,000 employees.
[So 4230 cuts is only a 4230/315000= 1.3% downsizing which could easily have been dealt with by a 1.3% timesizing for the whole company with damaging its and our consumer base.]
[Followup -]
Bracing for the blow - Waving good jobs goodbye at I.B.M., op ed by Bob Herbert, NYT, A35.
..."Offshoring" and "outsourcing" are two of the favored euphemisms for shipping work overseas. IBM prefers the term "global sourcing."...
[Suddenly, natural market-demanded employable manhours have become every nation's most precious vanishing resource.]
12/12/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 1,615 lost jobs + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT
(not counting economywide "Greenspan said the U.S. wouldn't regain jobs even if China lets its currency rise," pointer {to A2}, WSJ, front page) -
- Gillette plans to close 2 [blade and razor] plants in England, NYT, C4.
...and move production to a new plant...in Eastern Europe...eliminat[ing] 1,200-1,500 jobs...to cut costs....
- PolyOne to close vinyl film plant in [Burlington] New Jersey, NYT, C4.
...in Feb., eliminating 115 jobs....
- Kroger Co. - Workers ratify labor contract in three states and end strike
...Kroger said three of the 44 stores affected by the strike won't reopen.
[Unspecified job loss.]
12/11/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 1,420 lost jobs + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., newsprint producer, closes 2 mills, Bloomberg via NYT, C3 (??WSJ, A12).
in Lufkin TX and Port-Alfred QUE on Sunday, putting about 1,220 employees, or 8% of its workforce, out of work..\..in the face of slack prices for newsprint....
[Let's see. Was it a Lufkin in Tove Jansson's "Moominvalley in November" (1971)? Naw, it was a Snufkin. And a Fillyjonk. And a Toft. And a Hemulen. And a Mymble. And a Nummulite.]
The company, which is based in Montreal \and\ produces nearly 1/5 of the total newprint worldwide, will also permanently close two idled paper machines, one in Port-Alfred and one in Sheldon TX....
- Dana Corp., NYT, C3.
...Toledo OH, an autoparts supplier [will] lay off 200 workers at its plant in Ft. Wayne IN, 1/3 of the plant's workforce, next spring after losing a contract with DaimlerChrysler.
- Warnaco to cut costs by closing Speedo stores, Bloomberg via NYT, C3.
...its 44 remaining Speedo Authentic Fitness.stores...to focus on...wholesale....
[Unspecified jobs lost.]
12/10/2003 6 downsizings, totaling 11,800 lost jobs + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Lender sees weaker profit as mortgage boom eases - Washington Mutual [WaMu] to cut jobs as its key business shrinks, by Kenneth Gilpin, NYT, C4.
...to cut costs by $1B over the next year and a half, beginning in 1Q04,.\..reflecting the sharp slowdown in home mortgage and re-fi activity. The company, ...based in Seattle, [plans to] eliminate 2,900 jobs.... From August through November, WaMu...eliminated the equivalent of 4,500 full-time positions in its home-lending support operations. The bulk of this total reflects a reduction in temporary and contract personnel and in decreased overtime....
[If we knew the percentage done by decreasing overtime, we could give them credit for timesizing to reduce downsizing. But we don't.]
Currently WaMu has about 59,000 employees....
[So we count 2900+4500= 7,400 eliminated positions, which is a 7400/59000= 12.5% downsizing.]
- SBC Communications plans to cut up to 4,000 jobs (2.3%), AP via NYT, C4 (//WSJ, B6).
...[the 2nd-largest US phone company]...through employee buyouts and attrition...no layoffs....
- America Online to trim 2% of workforce, Bloomberg via NYT, C4.
...400 jobs, [mostly] software engineers, with about 375 of them at the Mtn View CA campus.
- Georgia-Pacific to combine units in cost-cutting move, Bloomberg via NYT, C4.
...a leading maker of plywood.... The number of jobs affected by the combination is not known yet....
- Hewlett-Packard merging 2 units, NYT, C4.
...its services and business-computer divisions to avoid duplicating sales work.... The new business, tech solutions, cuts the company's operating units to 3 from 4....
[Unspecified jobs lost.]
- Abercrombie & Fitch to end its racy magazine, by Carr & Rozhon, NYT, C1.
...The apparel retailer [will] no longer publish its provocative quarterly magazine...A & F Quarterly..\..which included photos of nude and nearly nude young models....
[Unspecified jobs lost.]
12/09/2003 (2) uncounted economywide downsizing stories + 6 counted downsizings, totaling 6,200 lost jobs + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- No cheer for the unemployed, editorial, NYT, A28.
With a perverse sense of holiday timing, pResident Bush and the Republican 'leaders' of Congress are blithely accepting the expiration of emergency benefits badly needed by the nation's long-term unemployed....
[Not just 'blithely accepting' but actually preaching in favor of, if yesterday's Wall Street Journal editorial is any indication -]
The jobs [vs. jobless] recovery - It's coming along, if Congress doesn't get in the way, editorial, 12/08/2003 WSJ, A14.
...While the [0.1% jobless] reduction wasn't large [no kidding], the current rate is at levels that several years ago would have been cheerfully hailed as full employment [when the Fed fostered unemployment at the 6% NAIRU (non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment) to control inflation].... So leave it to Congress to interfere in a way that would prevent the rate from falling further [by] extend[ing] unemployment insurance [UI] payments for another 13-to-26 weeks, after the current extension expires at the end of this month [which] would be the 4th time since the spring of 2002 that benefits have been extended beyond their normal six months.... Findings discussed in this year's Economic Report to the pResident..\..by the White House Council of Economic Advisers...argue that jobless insurance creates a disincentive to return to work....
[Here again, we have the twin assumptions that it's all about the discretionary jobless, not the uncapped top income brackets, and that this is a 'recovery' in a job-creation sense, regardless of ongoing automation and robotization. It's as if 'conservatives' assume Timesizing is already operating to the spread the well-paid market-demanded employment and on-the-job training to anyone who wants it. Meanwhile, their markets continue to erode as desperation spreads and people settle for lower and lower pay. But 'conservatives' seem incapable of parsing the difference between high- and low-wage jobs (and their effect on markets) or the difficulty in accessing training in today's labor-surplus-induced "burden-the-employee" culture.]
Based on work by Lawrence Katz, former chief economist at the Dept. of Labor in the Clinton Administration, the report shows that people tend to find jobs just before benefits run out. Jobless workers who receive benefits are more than twice as likely to find a job in the week before their benefits expire than in the several weeks immediately preceding expiration....
[Gee, could that possibly be because they despair of finding a job that pays as well as the one they got laid off from, so in desperation they settle for lower pay? And that couldn't possibly have a cumulative weakening effect on domestic consumer markets at all now, could it! Compare today's simple-minded rejoicing on the part of Bush's Secy of Labor -]
Where the workers are, by Elaine Chao, WSJ, A26.
Last Friday's upbeat news about the continued growth in the labor market is another reminder that it is time to drop the word "jobless" when referring to the current economic recovery. November's unemployment rate fell to 5.9% and the economy gained 57,000 jobs.
[Never mind that we needed 6 times that amount to offset job losses and get into actual recovery.]
This represents four straight months of job growth totaling 328,000 jobs -
[That's what we need in ONE month for real recovery.]
- the most robust four-month record in three years....
[Yep, we're really in trouble - because we're still downsizing, and Bush hasn't a clue what kind of aggregate safety net (eg: automatically unemployment-absorbing workweek fluctuation) would handle that kind of punishment. Back to the Times -]
This vital program ends on Dec.21, crushing the hopes of an estimated 80,000 or more jobless Americans each week who will find their state benefits expiring....
[Compare the 200,000,000 unemployed in China in the article below - and for them there's no unemployment insurance to "result in" higher unemployment and longer spells of unemployment, as the Journal editorial claims. Basically, the Journal's attention is at the wrong end of the problem. The Times brushes against the right end -]
...Members of the House and Senate are this week making drop-by visits to the Capitol to attend to the pork-packed, deficit-stoking spending bills that still gag their agenda....
[There's this 'conservative' assumption that the principle of marginal utility actually works in reverse, and if we can just concentrate more and more money in the top brackets, everything will get better and better. Never mind that the Invisible Hand in economics was actually the balancing influence of the very visible hand in politics that was extending the vote to more and more people and countering the default centripetal forces on money that would otherwise concentrate and de-activate more and more of it in the top brackets, not to mention noblesse oblige in the aristocracy surviving from the feudal period that prevented a stifling concentration of the Japanese national income till the late 1980s when they finally dropped their lifetime employment and started copying American downsizing.]
...By the time Congress returns to business six weeks from now, an estimated half-million more unemployed will have missed out on the federal benefits. They will join a backlog of the more than 2,000,000 long-term unemployed so out of sight and out of mind during the Republicans' holiday recess.
[Hmm, one hundredth of China's number - wonder where the US number comes from? If these 2m people have any brains, that'll be 2m more votes against Bush in 2004. Not that any of the Dems are too clear on what to do, although Dennis Kucinich does have a copy of Timesizing, Not Downsizing.]
- Jobs here and in China a White House topic, by Jim Yardley, NYT, A11.
...As American leaders in both parties complain about lost[-to-China] manufacturing jobs and push for China [and Japan!] to revalue its currency, China has its own serious jobs problem. In recent years, the shock therapy of China's economic restructuring has caused huge layoffs at old, unprofitable state-owned factories, while a crowded countryside has too little usable land and too many farmers....
[First time we've seen "shock therapy" applied to China - usually it's just been applied to Russia, thanks to that dufus, Jeffrey Sachs. But all things are relative. Russia's shock therapy was a lot faster and more shocking, but China is so big and the stupid factory closings, though slower than in Russia, still so fast relative to any kind of absorbability, that, yeah, this is shock "therapy" too though as in Russia, the therapy part remains to be seen except by the crudest measures, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - they don't call it "gross" for nothing.]
China's economic growthrates remain the envy of the world,
[or at least of the superficial USA and UK anyway]
but many economists say the continuing 'boom' [our quotes] is still not providing enough new jobs to curb unemployment..\..
[Economists still can't get it through their heads that growth in the age of automation and robotics has no necessary effect on jobs and derivative consumer markets.]
Factory unemployment is highest in the northeastern Rust Belt, where state-owned enterprises have either closed or downsized. Experts estimate that as many as 200 million farmers and rural workers are either unemployed or underemployed in a country of 1.3B people. And one report in the state news media found that only half of college graduates got jobs this year, compared with 95% in 1997....
[Gotta flex up those old brains, drop those obsolete ideas of how long a "full-time" job is and just share the scarce, market-demanded employment hours, however brief that means the worktime per person must be set.]
- Job cuts follow recovery in South Korea, by Samuel Len, NYT, W1.
...SOUTH KOREA...- Employment worries are growing [here] as signs proliferate that lifetime jobs are now a luxury of the past.
[Looks like S.Korea is poised to screw itself with downsizing just as Japan did in the late 1980s.]
The big blow came this fall, when the KT Corp., the country's largest phone company, said it was shedding more than 5,000 employees, or 1/8 of its workforce [12.5%]....
- Job cuts follow recovery in South Korea, by Samuel Len, NYT, W1.
...Last month, LG Card, [positioned as] the country's largest credit card company and recently rescued by emergency loans from creditors, said it planned to shed about 700 of its 2,800-member workforce....
- Job cuts follow recovery in South Korea, by Samuel Len, NYT, W1.
...Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction, a unit of the Doosan Group that builds powerplants, shed about 300....
- Job cuts follow recovery in South Korea, by Samuel Len, NYT, W1.
...SK Chemical, a unit of one of S. Korea's largest conglomerates, cut more than 100 at a regional branch....
- U.S. Steel to close distribution center and record charge, Bloomberg via NYT, C4 (//WSJ, A8).
...Its Straightline Source steel distribution center...which has been losing money, will close on Dec. 31.... Straightline, which was started in Oct/2001 with about 100 employees to increase sales to smaller customers, never turned a profit.... US Steel is based in Pittsburgh.
- Spiegel seeks to close stores after holidays, Bloomberg via NYT, C10.
...A bankrupt chainstore and catalog retailer has asked a federal judge for permission to close 30 Eddie Bauer stores and to hire companies to sell inventory at the locations after the holidays. Spiegel Inc. has [already] closed 60 Eddie Bauer stories along with distribution and customer service centers since filing for bankruptcy protection in March....
[Unspecified job loss.]
12/06/2003 2 downsizings, totaling 550 lost jobs, + (1) uncounted downsizing story, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Mitsubishi plans to lay off 425 at Illinois plant, AP via NYT, B4.
...assembly plant in Normal, Ill., next year because of a deep sales slump....
[Sales slump? - how can that be, in a "recovery"!]
The layoffs...planned for 1Q04 \and\ the first at the plant since 1999, will cut up to 350 union workers and as many as 75 nonunion workers.... The plant, Mitsubishi's only production plant in North America, has 2,870 union workers and 490 nonunion employees....
[So 425 cuts is 425/(2870+490)= 425/3360= 12.6, say a 13% downsizing, which should have been handled with a 13% timesizing.]
- Citing weak demand, 3M says it is cutting 125 more jobs, AP via NYT, B4.
...citing weak demand for industrial products like sandpaper and industrial adhesives and tapes....
[Weak demand? - how can that be, in a "recovery"!]
The layoffs affect salaried employees at the company's campus in Maplewood MN..\..
[Campus? "Cut 125 of those students!" However -]
Layoffs at 3M have slowed since it cut an estimated 6,500 jobs during a restructuring in 2001-2....
[No wonder there's weak demand today.]
+ (1) uncounted downsizing story -
- U.S. gained fewer jobs than expected last month, pointer digest (to A1), NYT, C1.
[and the main headline -]
Employers balk at new hirings, despite growth - Only 57,000 jobs created [in Nov. when we need over 300,000/mon.] - Jobless rate falls to 5.9% [from 6.0 in Oct.] and many cheerleaders oops economists remain optimistic, NYT, front page.
12/05/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 3,720 lost jobs, + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Schering-Plough to cut 10% from payroll expenses, AP via NYT, C3.
...in a move that could eliminate more than 3,000 jobs...with the goal of cutting annual expenses by more than $200m. [The drug maker's cuts will] include an estimated 1,000 positions being eliminated through an early retirement program announced in August for employees in the United States.
- Tyson Foods to close two older plants, ending 720 jobs, Reuters via NYT, C3.
...in February...in Manchester NH [550, and] Augusta ME [170]..\..to improve its manufacturing efficiency.... The company [is] based in Springdale, Ark....
[That's what you get for selling your local New England plants to an outfit in Arkansas.]
- Oneida, flatware maker, may shut last plant, AP via NYT, C3.
...unless financial recovery comes soon....
[Well, forget that. Unspecified job loss.]
On Wed...the world's largest maker and distributor of flatware and tableware reported a quarterly loss of $74.8m, more than half of it related to the closing of 5 factories in Buffalo and overseas..\..
[Talk about a self-fueling death spiral. The management skills of today's morons are nowhere displayed to greater disgrace -]
Its CEO, Peter Kallett...said the company might have to outsource manufacturing if it cannot keep its plant open.
[Compare -]
Indictment alleges Westar's former CEO [David Wittig] sought to loot firm, WSJ, C1.
12/04/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 3,470 lost jobs, + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Tata Iron & Steel will cut 3,000 jobs [7%], WSJ, B4.
...based in Bombay, India..\..by the end of the fiscal year. A senior official said, "...40,000 is an ideal staff size that we would like by March."...
[No reason given. So first we lost jobs to Mexico but now Mexico is losing jobs to India and now even India is losing jobs.]
\Tata\ has a voluntary-manpower reduction program [what a contrast to a real recovery!] to which about 800 people have already applied..\.. The reduction in staff will also include employees who retire by March [and] an additional 500 people will soon retire....
- France: Alcatel CIT to cut 470 jobs, Bloomberg via NYT, W1.
...the biggest maker of broadband Internet equipment...in France at its fixed-line communications and optical systems units...at which demand has declined..\.. and redeploy 900 others in 2004.... Alcatel CIT, which employs 7,600 people, will offer early retirement to employees who volunteer. The company, which is based in Paris, [will] reorganize its teams so that more people work on the mobile unit where demand is growing.
[Sounds vaguely like our own dear overtime-targeted training, redeployment & hiring.]
- Canada: Bombardier job cuts, by Bernard Simon, NYT, W1.
The Canadian aircraft and railcar manufacturer Bombardier...based in Montreal..\..said that it would close some European plants and cut management jobs to improve the profitability of its rail unit....
[Unspecified job cuts.]
12/03/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 3,250 lost jobs, + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT -
- Aviva PLC, WSJ, D9.
...will 'move' [from UK - our quotes] about 2,500 jobs to India in 2004, increasing its total number of staff in India to 3,700 by the end of next year....
[From high wage to low wage. From real jobs to 3rd-world drop in bucket and closer to 3rd-world in UK.]
The company estimates that running call centers in India costs 30-40% less than in the UK..\..
About 2,000 of the jobs that are 'moving' are in administration and IT, while 500 are at call centers.
[We have never seen this strained a positive spin on job loss. Watch this -]
Aviva said 80% of the jobs 'created' in India would be accommodated in the UK by a combination of staff turnover, voluntary redundancies [= layoffs] and current vacancies. But Aviva...couldn't rule out [forced] redundancies among the remaining approx. 500 workers. The company estimates that running call centers in India costs between 30% and 40% less than in the UK..\..
The UK insurer said the jobs will support its businesses in the UK and Canada. Aviva has 59,000 employees in total, including 33,000 in Britain....
[2500 vanishing UK jobs are 2500/33000= 7.5% of total UK jobs which could easily have been handled by a 7.5% hourscut for all UK employees if maintaining UK consumer markets were any consideration.]
- PepsiCo plans to cut 750 jobs and close several plants in Kentucky & Florida, NYT, C2 (//WSJ, B6).
- FAO Inc. to file for bankruptcy, pointer digest (to C6), NYT, C1.
...owner of the F.A.O. Schwarz toy stores, plans to file for bankruptcy protection a second time and...immediately liquidate its 89 Zany Brainy stores....
[Unspecified jobs lost. It's the toxic takeover-downsizing connection again - since it follows close on RightStart's 2002 takeover of FAO Schwartz for $155m, plus assets of the bankrupt Zany Brainy chain. (RightStart subsequently namechanged to FAO Inc.)]
12/02/2003 3 downsizings, totaling 330 lost jobs, + unspecified, cited in WSJ & NYT
(not counting economywide "Gushers of growth," by Chris Zook, WSJ, B4, which states, "After more than 3 years of debilitating downsizings and quest upon quest for greater efficiency, finding the next wave of profitable growth is again at the top of the CEO agenda.") -
- Hartford Financial Services Group to buy unit from CNA Financial for $½B, AP via NYT, C4.
...The combination could result in the elimination of 10% of the 3,300 jobs at the [group benefits] unit, a Hartford spokeswoman said....
[Again the toxic takeover-downsizing connection. Assuming they don't get this specific unless it's beyond 49-51% probable to 80-90% likely, this means 330 jobcuts.]
- DuPont plans to cut costs, jobs, by Thaddeus Herrick, WSJ, D7 (//NYT, C4).
...number...will be disclosed in April....
- Japan moves to expand cleanup of banks, by Ken Belson, NYT, W1.
...There are no more reprieves for Ashikaga Bank.... In [its] case, even though it had laid off 60% of its workforce, losses kept mounting because falling land prices and a sagging local economy undermined its loan portfolio....
[Unspecified job losses.]
Click here for downsizing stories in -
Nov/2003.
Oct/2003.
Sept/2003.
Aug.16-31/2003.
Aug.1-15/2003.
July/2003.
Jun.17-30/2003.
Jun.3-16/2003.
May/2003 (+Jun.1-2).
Apr.16-30/2003.
Apr.1-15/2003.
March/2003.
Feb.16-28/2003.
Feb.1-15/2003.
Jan.16-31/2003.
Jan.1-15/2003.
Dec/2002.
Nov.16-29/2002.
Nov.1-15/2002.
Oct.16-31/2002.
Oct.1-15/2002.
Sept/2002.
Aug.16-31/2002.
Aug.1-15/2002.
July/2002.
June/2002.
May/2002.
Apr/2002.
Mar/2002.
Feb/2002.
Jan. 16-31/2002.
Jan. 1-15/2002.
Dec. 16-31/2001.
Earlier 2001 downsizings accessible via links at bottom of Dec.16-31/2001 page.
Dec.16-31/2000.
Earlier Y2000 downsizings accessible via links at bottom of Dec.16-31/2000 page.
Dec/1999.
Earlier 1999 months accessible via links at bottom of Dec/1999 page.
December/98.
Earlier months accessible via links at bottom of Dec/98 page.
For more details, our laypersons' guide to our great economic future Timesizing, Not Downsizing is available at bookstores in Harvard Square, Cambridge, Mass. or from *Amazon.com online.
Questions, comments, feedback? Phone 617-623-8080 (Boston) or email us.
Return to Top |
Return to Home Page