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Good News, July-August, 2002
[Commentary] ©2002 Phil Hyde, The Timesizing Wire, Box 622, Cambridge MA 02140 USA (617) 623-8080

8/31/2002   headlines from heaven, alias glimmers of vaguer-than-timesizing hope - reported in NY Times &/or Wall St Journal (or Sats, a major regional newspaper) -

• Albertsons plans major expansion in the [Phoenix] Valley - Grocer is growing across Southwest, by Hal Mattern, Arizona Republic, D1.
  Albertsons Inc. said Friday that it plans to spend $500m over the next 3 years to build supermarkets, drugstores and gas stations in the Southwest, most of them in the Phoenix area.... Albertsons spokeswoman Jeannette Duwe said the company plans to build more dual-brand [Albertsons/Osco] food and drugstores and free-standing Osco Drug outlets in the Phoenix area through 2005. It also plans to build Albertsons Express gas and convenience centers. Duwe...said the company would more than double its recent expansion in Maricopa County. It has built 6 stores already, she said.
  [One of them in Chandler AZ, according to our previous story on 6/22/2002 #3. This additional news means unspecified additional new jobs, partially offset, however, by -]
  The expansion plans come at a time when Albertsons has been closing stores in other parts of the country. The Boise ID-based company has struggled to integrate Osco owner American Stores, which it bought for $12.5B in June 1999....
  [Again, static from the toxic takeover strategy. And they gotta be carrying humungous debt if they paid 12½ billion at the top of the market for that albatross.]

1. Ukraine: McDonald's to expand, Bloomberg via NYT, W1.
   The McDonald's Corp. [plans] to invest $50m to double the number of its restaurants in Ukraine by 2007 to meet growing demand. McDonald's [plans] to open 14 restaurants in Kiev, the Black Sea port of Odessa, and other large cities through 2003 and double its staff to 6,000 in five years.
   [So, 3,000 new McJobs, literally.]
   McDonald's has spent $76m building 49 restaurants since opening its doors in Kiev in 1997.

2. Intel to expand operations in India, by Saritha Rai, NYT, C3.
   ...The Indian center designing and developing the high-end microprocessor will be Intel's 3rd such site in the world, after the U.S. and Israel. Intel, which has 900 employees in India, is expected to quadruple its staff in five years....
   [900x4= 3600. Minus the current 900 = 2,700 new jobs.]

3. Germany: New no-frills airline, by Jane Levere, NYT, W1.
   A German travel company, TUI, [will] start a scheduled no-frills airline in December based at Cologne-Bonn Airport using eight 737-700's chartered from Germania, a Berlin-based charter carrier. Named Hapag-Lloyd Express, after one of TUI's charter carriers, the airline will fly to German and other European cities, including Berlin, Munich, Barcelona, Milan and Paris....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

4. Germany: New no-frills airline, by Jane Levere, NYT, W1.
   ...My-Travel Group, a British travel company, announced a similar discount operation earlier this summer.
   [We saw no announcement of this earlier so, we'll register unspecified new jobs now.]

5. Taiwan: Chip plant to rise in China, Bloomberg via NYT, W1.
   The world's largest supplier of made-to-order computer chips, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., [has] signed an agreement to become the island's first chipmaker in China, after Taiwan loosened controls on mainland investing....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]
   China's annual production is projected to reach 20B chips by 2005, 50B short of domestic demand.

• A call for war: Will the country respond? letters to editor, NYT, A24.
  [First, a 'pre-emptive' blast from the hawks. Then excerpts from 6 of the 8 answers -]
  • By Brandt Zembsch of Weston CT.
    "Summons to war" (editorial, Aug. 28) concludes: "The Bush administration has set a course for military action against Iraq. It still has to persuade the country that war is warranted.
    But the country is persuaded; every poll I have seen shows that a majority of Americans favors pre-emptive military actoin against Iraq. You may object to this stance, but do not delude yourself into thinking that "the country" agrees with you. It doesn't.

  1. By Deborah Baxter of Albany NY.
     ...I personally do not know a single person in favor of a pre-emptive strike against Iraq. Where are these voices?...

  2. ...By Miles Anderson of Sag Harbor NY.
     ...Our experience in Vietnam teaches that we cannot win and should not undertake a military adventure unless an overwhelming majority of ordinary citizens are convinced that America's vital interests are in peril..\..
     The test ought not to be whether the Bush administration can...garner a bare majority in Congress to support intervention in Iraq.... It may take only 51% to declare war, but it takes near unanimity to wage war successfully.

  3. ...By Ted Bache of Menlo Park CA.
     ...Maureen Dowd's spoof of the U.S.'s rush to war with Iraq ["I'm with Dick! Let's make war!" Aug. 28] calls it correctly. Saudi Arabia, in my book, has clearly been more of the behind-the-scenes meddler and troublemaker than any other country in that sorry and worrisome part of the world.
     [And in strange corroboration of this view, check out today, "Worried Saudis pay millions to improve image in the U.S.," by Christopher Marquis, NYT, frontpage. But don't confuse Dubya with facts - his mind's made up. He has to exonerate his pa - for raising, not lowering, taxes, and for merely doing what needed to be done, and all that the allies wanted to be done, to save Kuwait. But somebody knocked his dad fer not "gittin' Saddam," so guess what idee fixe our robopathic little pResident has "burnt in" on his limited "ROM."]

  4. ..\..By Barbara Warren of Keswick VA.
     ...The idea that the nation's chief executive can unilaterally commit this country to war is appalling.
     [And isn't that more or less what happened with Vietnam?]
     It is equally appalling to see Congress apparently too timid to attend to its own constitutional duty.
     [But isn't that more or less what they did when they palmed off rate-setting onto the now-private Federal Reserve?]
     It is bad enough that we have an unelected president; that he is diminishing this country abroad; and that he continues to brand regimes as unacceptable to him. It should be unthinkable that we be led by a warmonger.

  5. ...By Robert Salzman of Millington NJ.
     ...We all want to get rid of Saddam Hussein, but war would not be the fastest route. World opinion is already against the war. Furthermore, going to war against Iraq will surely begin a greater conflict, because Israel will almost certainly be attacked.
     [It was in the Gulf War.]
     Who knows where all this will lead?
     [Vietnam revisited, and maybe Hiroshima revisited.]
     Why is the American public kept in the dark by the White House about this issue?
     [Because the American public is kept in the dark by the White House about EVERY issue, and hey, Cheney and Bush must be gettin' a LOT of money from the weapons industry.]

1. Jobs are aplenty..., by Kris Maher, WSJ, B8.
   ...Home Depot Inc., Atlanta...plans to hire 40,000 people this year....
   [We have only seen two references to hiring by Home Depot this year (unspecified new jobs back on 8/10/2002 below and in a story about Kimco on 4/27/2002).]

2. Jobs are aplenty..., by Kris Maher, WSJ, B8.
   Last month, Microsoft Corp. said that over the next year, it will hire 7,000-8,000 people; 5,000 will take newly created jobs. A Microsoft spokeswoman says most will be sales and technical positions....
   [We saw 550 new sales jobs at Microsoft on 6/25/2002 #1, which is close enough to "last month" (July) that we should probably deduct them. So now we'll count 5000-550= 4,450 new jobs.]

3. Jobs are aplenty at Varian Medical Systems, by Kris Maher, WSJ, B8.
   ...A Palo Alto CA maker of cancer equipment...which employs 2,600 worldwide has nearly 60 positions to fill. The company hired 233 people during the past 9 months - 60% of those spots were newly created jobs....
   [So, 60% of 233 means 140 new jobs in the past 9 months that we haven't counted yet, plus the 60 (new?) positions it has to fill now adds up to 200 new jobs.]
   Varian's hiring push shows how technological advances are helping to create jobs in the health-care industry..\..
   [And lest you think that Varian is a great example of how, supposedly, "technology creates more jobs than it destroys," -]
   Varian represents one of the few bright spots along a stretch of Silicon Valley dotted with abandoned office complexes that are vivid reminders of the dot-com bust....

4. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers restaurant chain to add 17 franchises, Bloomberg via NYT, C4.
   [Unspecified new McJobs.]
   • ...One franchisee, Round Robin, based in Manchester, Conn., will open 7 Red Robins in Conn. and Mass. during the next 7 years...
     [One per year?]
   • Another franchisee, Unbridled Hospitality, based in Pittsburgh, an operator of family restaurants, will open 5 Red Robins in Penn. during the next 5 years.
     [One per year!]
   • Red Robin of Mich., which runs 9 Red Robins in Ohio and Mich., will open 5 more in Mich. in 5 years.
   Red Robin is based in Greenwood Village, Colo.

• Banking's future lies in its past - We need to return to the spirit of the New Deal reforms, op ed by Martin Mayer, NYT, 4-9.
  Three years after the much longed-for [surely Mayer means "the z`much lobbied-for"] repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the 1933 law that prohibited commercial banks from owning brokers and underwriters, investors are beginning to wonder whether maybe the New Deal had got it right after all....
  [at least in terms of the separation of functions in the finance industry! See 7/02/99 #2. Timesizing.com, of course, would say we need to return to the letter, not just the spirit, of the Glass-Steagall Act. Now that we've trashed the hard lessons learned in the history of the Great Depression, we're doomed to relearn them all over again. We have put banking, insurance and brokerage back into the blender, so now -]
  Deception [and conflict of interest!] is invited by "structured finance," in which a bank's loans are broken into different marketable assets - each with its own risks, repayment schedules, accounting treatment, tax consequences, even names.... We need legislation and regulation that will guard
  • against more unpublicized OTC derivatives trades,
  • against more unreported sales of stock by CEOs to their own companies,
  • against more off-the-books creation of "special purpose vehicles" for which the special purpose is concealment of losses or invention of revenues,
  • against more unreported giant loans to insiders,
  • against more tie-in deals in which bank secrecy hides favors that will be repaid later with lucrative work on mergers or underwriting.
  Most of these scandalous activities were legal, and many still are. (Loans to insiders are now prohibited.) The vice in each is that only the insiders know what is happening. The guiding principle of the New Deal legislation was that sunshine is the best disinfectant, and that's still true....

• Violent Oregon protests take Bush by surprise, by Joseph Frazier, AP via Arizona Republic, A4.
  [Maybe the people are waking up even if the Democrats aren't.]
  PORTLAND, Ore. - The violent demonstrations against pResident Bush caught White House planners by surprise, a spokesman said Friday.... More than 1,000 people screamed anti-Bush slogans, tagged buildings with graffiti, and challenged police at barricades around the hotel where Bush held a fundraiser for Sen. Gordon Smith.
  Among other issues, the protesters said they were upset with -
  • Bush's plan to relax environmental standards for logging,
  • a possible war with Iraq,
  • the U.S. stand on the Palestinian question and
  • what they called rampant government corruption....
    [Maybe that would refer to the coverup on Cheney's energy taskforce, Cheney's coverup of Halliburton, Bush's coverup of Harken, etc etc etc.]

• Ruling is overturned for store opening, WSJ, B7.
  ANAHEIM, Calif. - After months of controversy, the city council here voted Tuesday night to overturn a planning commission ruling and allow a Mexican chain to open a supermarket here. The ruling to allow Grupo Gigante SA to acquire a liquor license will let the Mexico City-based retailer move into a 55,000-sq-ft space at the Anaheim Plaza....
  [Unspecified new jobs.]

1. Georgia tire plant opens, Bloomberg via NYT, C2.
   Pirelli, one of Europe's leading tire companies, ha[s] opened its first US tire factory fitted with a robot system that cuts production time.
   [...and, doubtless, workforce.]
   The company, based in Milan [Italy], chose Rome, Ga., for the plant. The factory will employ as many as 300 people after three years....
   [Wonder how many it would have employed without the robots? - and should be employing, on a shorter workweek, to guarantee that there will be purchasers for these tires.]
   ...Pirelli installed its first robot system two years ago in Milan.

2. Boy, 13, in custody fight, gets to decide his own fate, NYT, A13.
   A...South Dakota boy [Timmie Meldrum] at the center of a custody battle between his biological father and his late mother's male companion has been given the chance to choose with whom he will live....
   [Good. So may it transpire in many more of these cases. Child power and self-determination!]
   Timmie, whose mother died in a car accident when he was 10, had been living with her former[?] companion, Chuck Novotny, a farmer from Winner, SD, for several years.... Timmie's father, Timothy Meldrum of Colona, Ill...a diesel mechanic, had kept in touch with his son over the years, but had not lived with him since he and the boy's mother, Nancy, separated in the early 1990's..\..
   [So far so good. Now the part that makes us a little nervous -]
   The boy is to inform the judge [Max Gorz of the SD Circuit Court] of his decision on July 1, after living part of the year with each of the two men seeking custody....

1. [1 UPsizing]
   Peabody Energy Corp., NYT, C4.
   ...St. Louis, a producer of coal,...reopened its Big Mountain mine in Prenter, W.Va., because of increasing demand from utilities.
   [Unspecified new or restored jobs.]

2. 2 population articles - signaling a moment of far-sightedness in the media -
   1. Experts scaling back their estimates of world population growth - Most growth is expected in cities, and that's a good thing, by Barbara Crossette, NYT, D8.
      ...The world's population, now 6.2 billion, quadrupled in the 20th century....
      • In 1900, [only] about 14% [of the world's people lived] in urban areas \with\ 86% ... in rural areas....
      • By 2000, urban communities were home to 47% of the population, with 53% still in the countryside.

   2. Bracing for economic changes, when the population grows no more - As fertility rates fall, societies usually grow richer, but beware the social security fallout, by Daniel Altman, NYT, D8.
      ...Wealthy nations may find more problems than solutions as their populations begin to plateau or decline.
      [Unlikely. It's just that when the huge problem in front is solved, our eyes adjust and the smaller problem behind looms just as large.]
      ...Fewer people are being born, and the elderly in need of support are growing in number....
      [We hear this over and over again, but it really is remarkable that population scientists have not grasped the implications of technology in terms of its ability to take over human tasks.]

• [1 UPsizing]
  Star Cruises plans to buy 2 more vessels, Bloomberg via NYT, C8.
  HONG KONG -...The 4th largest cruise line operator [plans] to spend $550m to buy 2 more vessels as it seeks to expand in the Chinese and North American markets. The ships are in addition to the 2 that it said in June it would buy for $450m.... The ships will be financed through loans, cash and a share placement of $300-350m..\..
  Two of the new ships will serve the Chinese market and the other 2 will be slated for North America. The company expects delivery of the first ship in 2004, said Michael Lim, senior VP of finance.
  [Unspecified new jobs.]
  Star Cruises operates 19 cruise ships.... One ship will be added to the fleet this year.

1. [UPsizing #1]
   Steel jobs in W.Va. lure thousands, by Armendariz & Creno, Arizona Republic (AR), D8.
   WEIRTON, W.Va. - Thousands of people - some from across the country, others from just across the Ohio River - have been swarming to West Virginia this week, lured by words the ailing steel industry hasn't heard in a long time: Someone is hiring.
   Weirton Steel Corp. found itself with nearly 150 vacancies when a higher than expected number of workers who had hit the 30-year mark opted for retirement. But in 3 days, at least 3,000 people showed up at the Millsop Community Center for applications. A final tally "could go as high as 5,000," Weirton Steel spokesman Gregg Warren said Friday. "It's a reflection not only of the state of the industry but of the lack of good-paying manufacturing jobs in this country," said CEO and Pres. John Walker.
   [These aren't exactly "new" jobs but they are vacancies created by timesizing on a worklife basis (longer retirement), in contrast to a workyear basis (longer vacation) or a workweek basis (longer weekends).]

2. [UPsizing #2]
   Whole Foods preparing to open new Valley store, by Yvette Armendariz & Glen Creno, AR, D8.
   ...A 2nd Whole Foods Market is scheduled to open in late October at Tatum and Shea Blvds. in Phoenix.... Plans are to hire 100-130 employees. Most will be full-time....

3. [UPsizing #3]
   Tolleson District adds 2 elementary schools, by Venita James, AR, B6.
   TOLLESON, Ariz., - Tolleson Elementary School District graduated from a one-campus district this month when it opened two new schools, as well as a new combined warehouse, transportation and maintenance building.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]
   The District has 1,800 students and is growing.
   [Ohoh, more population in a desert. And these arrogant desert-dwellers expect us taxpayers in the Northeast to continue subsidizing their cheap water - which they waste on lawn-watering, car washing and even fountains and artificial lakes - see "Bigger water users know conservation," by Shaun McKinnon, AR, B1. We in the Northeast will believe you when you hypocritical anti-government, anti-taxation Arizonans pay back the government for all the costly federal water projects that have dried up the Colorado River and supplied you with ridiculously cheap water, cheaper than ours in the Northeast where water is plentiful! - (though in some spots even we are running out).]
   It plans to begin construction on a 4th school and a new admin bldg in 2 yrs.

4. [UPsizing #4]
   New Borgata restaurant to offer variety of Asian, by Armendariz & Creno, AR, D8.
   The Borgata of Scottsdale [what's that, a mall?] gets another restaurant Tuesday when Asian eatery Mika opens [featuring] a bar and 2 patios.... The Borgata is at 6166 N. Scottsdale Rd.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

5. [misc. #1]
   U.S. bans a scheme to avoid estate tax with life insurance, by David Johnston, NYT, front page.

   The Treasury Dept. banned a technique yesterday that thousands of the wealthiest Americans have used to escape billions of dollars in gift and estate taxes. The technique involves buying expensive life insurance that will be passed on to heirs, but declaring a far lower price on gift-tax returns....
   ["Price" or "benefit"? At any rate, it will get a few more of the taxes on the people who have all the money - and a lot more than they can spend.]

6. [misc. #2]
   Explanation asked for lack of Enron charges, AP via AR, D7.
   [About time!]
   WASHINGTON - A senator [Byron Dorgan, D-ND] leading an investigation of Enron Corp. asked the Justice Dept. [headed by Ashcroft] on Friday to explain why it hasn't prosecuted executives of the energy company that collapsed in Dec....
   [That's easy - so the slime doesn't bubble up and stick to Dubya via his bud Kenny Lay, why else?!]

1. [1 UPsizing]
   Chip maker to build a factory in China, by Laurie Flynn, NYT, C6.
   In a move that indicates a major expansion into Asian markets, the chip maker National Semiconductor...based in Santa Clara, Calif. \will\ build its first integrated circuit manufacturing factory in China, in Jiangsu Province, about 50 miles west of Shanghai.... Construction of the factory, which will eventually employ 500 people, is expected to begin in November and be completed in 2004....

2. [1 coming-to-their-senses]
   Top Republicans break with Bush on Iraq strategy - Cite risks of a war plan - Current and former foreign policy figures urge more diplomatic preparation, by Todd Purdum & Patrick Tyler, NYT, front page.
   [Who?]
   These senior Republicans include former Secy of State Henry Kissinger, and Brent Scowcroft, the first Pres. Bush's national security adviser.... [Even Dick Armey, on Sunday! -]
   Armey may be leaving, but isn't going quietly, by Adam Clymer, 8/18/2002 NYT, A14.
   ...In Des Moines, he called Saddam Hussein a "blowhard." He said: "My own view would be to just let him bluster, let him rant and rave all he wants. As long as he behaves himself within his own borders, we should not be addressing any attack or resources against him." He also said, "We Americans don't make unprovoked attacks against other nations."...
   [Very well said (tho' belied by Allende, etc.). Of course, we're hearing opposition from everyone but those we should be hearing opposition from -]
   The Waco road to Baghdad - The war on bad news, op ed by Frank Rich, 8/17/2002 NYT, A23.
   ...Democrats, as timid in challenging Mr. Bush on Iraq as they were in letting his taxcut through Congress, keep calling for a "debate." What world are they living in? Mr. Bush is no sooner going to abandon his pursuit of Saddam than his crusade to eliminate estate tax. These are his only core beliefs.
   The questions left to be debated now are who's going to pay for the war, who's going to be killed in it, who's going to police what could be a decade-long cleanup. (So far the answer to all three seems to be first and foremost: the go-it-alone Americans.) The loudest voices asking these questions are almost exclusively Republican....

• Tasty Baking picks a new president and chief executive, AP via NYT, C3.
  The Tasty Baking Co., the maker of Tastykake snacks, has appointed Charles Pizzi as president and CEO.  Mr. Pizzi, president of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce, will replace Carl Watts in October when he retires.... Mr. Watts said none of the 15 other candidates he interviewed had understood Tasty Baking's culture and its status in Philadelphia [and New York City!].  Most proposed cutting the work force of 1,000, he said.
  [So are executives with common sense really this rare - one in 16??? Are only 6% of executives ready to resist the fashionable rush to downsizing - and the resulting double-dip recession or worse?   Tasty Baking goes back a long way. Colleague Kate remembers their catchy jingle, "Tastykake cakes & pies!" from her childhood in the Bronx in the 50s.]

• Now hot in games: A job - Videogame industry booms in downturn, and employers get picky with their hires, by Khanh Tran, WSJ, B1.
  ...Electronic Arts, of Redwood City, Calif..\..the largest independent game-software maker with 3,600 employees worldwide, recently announced plans to hire nearly 600 people through next March, according to its senior VP of HR, Rusty Rueff....

• Now hot in games: A job..., by Khanh Tran, WSJ, B1.
  ...Lucasfilm's games unit, having increased its workforce by 15% [50 jobs] to 375 in the past year, has 16 new jobs available....
  [Didn't see any of those announced, so now we'll call all 50+16= 66 new jobs.]

• Now hot in games: A job..., by Khanh Tran, WSJ, B1.
  CALABASAS HILLS, Calif. - Kim Miller...the recruiter at videogame maker THQ Inc., has...some 51 \jobs\ to offer...rang[ing] from senior counsel to game testers who can speak French and German....

• Now hot in games: A job..., by Khanh Tran, WSJ, B1.
  ...France's Ubi Soft Entertainment SA is adding 40 workers to its 100-person office in San Francisco and leasing a 10,000-sq-ft office near its existing site to accommodate the new hires....

• Now hot in games: A job..., by Khanh Tran, WSJ, B1.
  ...Electronics Boutique Holdings Corp., the West Chester, Pa., specialty games retailer, plans to open at least 200 stores this year and will need to staff them....
  [Unspecified new jobs.]

• [now maybe we can lay this red herring to rest! -]
  Forget the wealth effect: Income drives consumer spending, by Bernard Wysocki Jr, WSJ, A2.
  It's time to stop paying so much attention to the "wealth effect."
  [Never mind that the WSJ and the Economist magazine have been saying the opposite for ten years, says colleague Kate, just back up from Cottonwood campground via the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.]
  Monitoring the wealth effect became a popular practice for economists during the high-flying 1990s as they sought to quantify how much of the trillions of dollars in new stock-market wealth consumers were spending.
  [AND as they sought to continue ignoring the marginal efficiency of, and continue justifying, the unprecedented concentration of wealth, generally unactionably described as the "widening income gap."]
  The conventional wisdom was that they spent 4% of their gains. That is, for every new $1 of equity wealth that consumers rack up, they will spend about four cents over time.
  [But this conventional wisdom ignored the economic doctrine of the "marginal efficiency of (concentrated) capital/income/wealth" which essentially means that people with serious stock holdings not tied up in pensions and 401k's are not really significant "consumers" because they have far more spending power than they ever can or do actually spend. They are hoarders, and we should be making the same kind of distinction between them and ordinary consumers as they themselves make between themselves and ordinary employees when they carefully exclude themselves from any of their complaints about "inefficient" or "inflationary" payroll costs. It is a two-tier economy (at the very least!), and the sooner we quit trying to pretend its a "tierless economy," the better.]
  And ever since stock prices began to decline two years ago, economists have been looking for the "negative" wealth effect to kick in as trillions of dollars in stock-market losses trigger some untold cutbacks in spending.
  Funny thing is, spending has continued to grow despite the market's weakness. So, why hasn't the negative wealth effect destroyed consumer spending?
  The answer is that wealth effects - in which the spending is partly driven by a psychological sense of well-being - pales next to real fundamentals that drive most U.S. households to spend, which is their ongoing flow of income. By far the biggest driver of consumer spending is personal income, the $9 trillion a year flowing to U.S. households in the form of wages, salaries, interest, dividends and government pension payments. This is what really determines how much the U.S. consumer will spend in the months ahead, [not capital gains or losses in stocks - ed.].
  [And we would argue that there are too few people with the luxury of significant interest or stock-dividend income to make those sources of income any significant contributor to consumer spending, despite Wall Street's (and Greenspan's?) spurious attempt to portray the stock market as a hobby of the majority of Americans.]
  ...The important point is that wealth effects, even if they are growing because of gyrations in asset prices, are far outweighed by income effects in determining what drives consumer spending.
  [Now here's where we part company with this guy, and for a similar reason to the issue discussed above - he doesn't distinguish between the spending-relevant income of the poor and middle classes, and the spending-irrelevant incomes of the wealthy -]
  And incomes have been strong.
  [What planet does this guy live on?]
  In the 12-month period ended in June, personal income was up 3.4%.
  [Notice that the question of whose personal income was up doesn't arise, and clearly the usual pre-Depression super-flow of income to the top brackets has gone on or intensified in the 12-month period, enough to offset, by averaging, the continuing shrinkage of income to the vast majority of ordinary employee-consumers and the unemployed-welfare-disabled-forceretired&incarcerated. Talk about data with blinders!]
  Looking at these numbers, there is no mystery why the consumer has been the standout of an otherwise lackluster US economy..\..
  [Looking at these numbers and adding the marginal efficiency of wealth, there certainly is still a mystery, but that mystery is resolved by the huge growth in consumer credit, which Wysocki alludes to earlier when he says -]
  An IMF study concluded that between January 2000 and October 2001, the downturn in equities lowered consumer spending by 1.9 percentage points. However, this was almost [completely] offset by a 1.6 point gain from spending by homeowners out of the [rise] in the value of their homes....
  [What we're talking about here is home equity loans, which must currently be close to an all-time high. Then there's the zero-percent financing that automakers are offering if you'll puhleez only buy a car, and the furious competition between credit card companies to get you to buy something, anything, because "it's only plastic," not to mention the general deflation in airfares, train fares, hotel rooms, and practically everything else. We don't have currently so much a real estate bubble as a more general consumer credit bubble, but consumer credit can't go on forever any more than the marketless dot-coms could.]
  Even in a lackluster job market, overall wages and salaries grew moderately.
  [Or maybe executive salaries, which don't affect consumer spending, grew immoderately and overall wages and salaries didn't grow at all, but then they averaged them and hey presto! it looked like overall wages and salaries grew moderately.]
  Moreover, pension income and other government transfer payments soared nearly 10%.
  [Does that include the $25,000-30,000 costs per inmate per year for each of our 1,100,000 incarcerated Americans?]
  And one sub-category, inflation-adjusted disposable income, has been soaring. It rose at a 9.1% annualized pace in the first half of 2002, which Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley calls the fastest growth rate in two decades.
  [Ya know, this would all be a lot more believable if it didn't all come from the cheerleaders who are desperate to get people back into the stock market, regardless of a scandal a day and plain lack of markets. How can we conclude there is a general lack of markets and consumer demand, despite all this guy's cheery "data"? Because if there were generally strong consumer markets and demand, how come anybody who's selling anything is lowering prices -]
  These big gains in real purchasing power [NB: quite different from active purchasing!] owe their strength to low inflation, low interest rates that cut mortgage payments, and lower tax burdens [that cut the spending-activating money centrifuge] on Americans [especially non-spending wealthy Americans - ed.].
  [Here we get back to WSJ party line that so much depends on low taxes, regardless of the economy-dynamizing boost that the centrifugation of the steeply graduated income taxes of 1941-63 had on the economy.]
  It is far from certain, of course, that...spending will hold up as well in the months ahead.
  ["You can say that again."]
  Last week, some big retailers reported that sales were softer than expected in July.... And with continued weakness in the US business sector, some economists are bracing for a new round of jobcuts in the months ahead. William Dudley, economist at Goldman Sachs Group, believes that a weakening job market "implies sharp deceleration" in income growth. The sharp declines in the stock market have prompted people to save [ie: bank] more, driving the personal savings rate to greater than 4% of income. By definition, money saved isn't spent on consumer goods and services....
  

• [1 UPsizing]
  Home Depot to open three lawn and garden outlets, Reuters via NYT, B4.
  ...They were created in response to professional landscapers and home gardeners who wanted a wider variety of products than Home Depot..\., tapping the rising popularity of gardening with a needed growth vehicle.., could stock in its regular warehouses. The 3 nursery test stores will be in metropolitan Atlanta. The first will open Aug. 29; the other two...on Sept. 12.
  [Unspecified new jobs.]

• [1 UPsizing]
  Work starts on North Korea's U.S.-backed nuclear plant - Limiting nuclear bombs in exchange for nuclear power, by Howard French, NYT, A9.
  KUMHO -...The $4.6B reactor to be built here was first envisaged in 1994, when the US and North Korea were edging toward war over suspicions that this country was trying to build nuclear weapons....
  [Unspecified new jobs. But it pollutes for 30,000 years, but it's in one of the Bush-dubbed "Axis of Evil" countries, but...]

• [1 UPsizing, 660 new jobs]
  PayPal to build complex in Nebraska, AP via NYT, C2.
  ...The Internet payment services company plans to build a customer service and operations installation...that could hold up to 1,200 people. The company, based in Mountain View, Calif., [already] has 540 employees in Omaha NB who will be moved into the building from 2 sites.
  [So, 1200-540= 660 new jobs.]
  The single-storey building will be completed in early 2003 as part of a new retail and business park in an Omaha suburb. PayPal said in April that it would add 100 employees to its Omaha work force.
  [Never saw any such announcement, so we'll continue with the generous 660 figure.]

• The solution to scandals? Simpler rules, by Walter Wriston, WSJ, A10.
  [Here's a feature of Timesizing that we don't emphasize enough. Timesizing simplifies the rules. It applies at such a general level that it supercedes hordes of more detailed rules and regulations and programs and bureaucracies.... The full employment that Timesizing delivers via flexible reduced-workweek employment sharing and overtime-targeted training&hiring cuts out jobs programs and enterprise zones and block grants and taxbreaks to Raytheon and Fidelity for keeping their jobs in-state, and prolonged education and excessive prisons etc etc etc.... And simpler rules make for much easier enforcement, because it's a lot more obvious when someone is breaking them.]

1. [1 UPsizing]
   Sprouts grows 1 store, plans to add another, by Glen Creno & Yvette Armendariz, Arizona Republic & USA Today reports via Arizona Republic, D3.
   California-based grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market in Chandler AZ is extending is hours of operation and adding another checkout lane.... The company plans to add another [Phoenix] Valley store in Glendale...in November.... Store locations in Scottsdale and Gilbert, expected to open next year, are under negotiation. In all, 18 stores are planned for the Valley.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

2. Administration approves stiff penalties for diesel engine emissions, angering industry - Republicans and truckers lose a battle with the pResident, by Katharine Seelye, NYT, A9.
   ...The penalties run up to $12,000 for every engine that is made after Oct. 1 and violates federal emission standards....
   [There are federal emission standards for trucks??!]

3. Hard line on records, AP via NYT, A10.
   Judge Emmet G. Sullivan of Federal District Court warned the Bush administration that he would reject any effort to block the release of records on VP Dick Cheney's energy task force unless government lawyers provided specific reasons. "It is not appropriate to say, 'executive privilege,'" Judge Sullivan said. "It is not appropriate to say, 'This request is unconstitutional.'" The Sierra Club and Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog group, have filed lawsuits seeking records to determine whether the task force was influenced by industry executives.
   [How could it be otherwise? Most of them were industry executives.]

1. Solidarity helps ensure security, op ed by Jacqueline Jones, NYT, A23.
   [Jacqueline draws a good lesson from the decision of the nine Pa. miners to live or die together - that the real key to security is a diverse population integrated by extended self-interest. Wall Street doesn't supply that vital ingredient. Timesizing does.]

2. The days of terror in Jerusalem, letter to editor by...Rabin biographer Dan Kurzman of North Bergen NJ, NYT, A22.
   ...How many more Israelis and Palestinians must die before Israelis demand a leader who wlil unconditionally take Yasir Arafat up on his plea for a renewal of negotiations, which alone [plus some of Gandhi's tactics - ed.] can end the terrorism?
   One of history's great ironies is that a deal settling almost all differences over questions like settlements and Jerusalem was largely reached at Taba, Egypt, and awaits completion.
   Is Mr. Arafat a more corrupt and ruthless leader that some of our "friends" in the Middle East? At least he was elected and is willing to set down at the table. On the other hand, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will continue to impose conditions for talks that cannot be met.
   [In short, he'll continue to sabotage peace.]
   As Yitzhak Rabin told me shortly before he was assassinated [by an Israeli - working for Sharon?], Mr. Sharon isn't likely to support a reasonable peace. And there won't be one as long as he leads Israel.

3. Nevadans weigh proposal to make marijuana legal - State would regulate [pot] industry and tax it - Nevada considers a first-in-the-nation drug policy, by Michael Janofsky, NYT, A12.
   [Go, Nevada! You're already leading the world, along with the Netherlands, in the decriminalization of sex workers. And it's probably no accident that this progressive step is embodied in a citizen initiative. Iniitiatives and referendums are the only hope this country has of moving beyond the strangling bottleneck created by corrupt and backward legislators now that the campaign finance reform law is being undermined.]
   ...Organizers of the campaign that put the current initiative of the November ballot, Nevadans for Responsible Law Enforcement, are [promoting] it strictly as a law enforcement issue. As Billy Rogers, campaign manager for the effort, said, "Most Nevadans think it is a waste of taxpayers' money to arrest people for small amounts of marijuana when the time could be better spent arresting murderers and rapists."...
   [Hear, hear!]

1. I.B.M. opening a $2.5B specialized chip plant, by Steve Lohr, NYT, C1.
   EAST FISHKILL, NY...- IBM opened a sprawling, highly advanced semiconductor factory here [yester]day that cost more than $2.5B to build and equip, the largest single capital investment the company has ever made. The factory, which opens as the computer chip business is in a slump, is a costly and risky move for IBM.... The new plant is part of IBM's push to gain a strong lead in chip making beyond the personal computer business, where Intel and East Asian chip producers hold the advantage.... The new factory, which will begin normal production early next year, will employ about 1,000 people....

2. Correctional Services Corp., WSJ, D3.
   ...will build and operate a detention facility in Tacoma, Wash., for the Immigration and Naturalization Service [INS] under a contract expected to generate $100m in revenue over the next 5 years. The contract is expected to bring more than 120 new jobs to the Tacoma area. The new facility will replace the 150-bed government-owned INS detention facility that Correctional Services currently manages in Seattle.

1. Detroit and California rev their engines over emissions, by Danny Hakim, NYT, 4-3.
   ...The state's new legislation...would sharply cut emissions of carbon dioxide....
   [Let's hear it for Calif.!]

2. Invasion of the consultants, by Lawrence van Gelder, NYT, 3-11.
   ...Pat Lancaster, chairman of Lantech Inc., a Louisville, Ky., company in the stretch wrapping business, has seen both the good and the bad of consulting. "Nothing is as infuriating as hiring consultants and discovering a robotic solution they will cram you into at any cost and an unwillingness to get their hands dirty," he writes.
   [Sounds like they're saying "Rightsize!" - i.e., mass layoffs.]
   Ten years ago [however] when Lantech was trying to recapture market share after its primary patent ran out, Mr. Lancaster turned to the TBM Consulting Group of Durham, NC. "Unlike most productivity consultants, who are the enemy to the average line worker, TBM preached a zero layoff policy (as they said, nobody in their right mind will work on a process that will eliminate their job) and they quickly involved all of the employees," he writes.
   [Sounds like they're singing Lincoln Electric's tune.]
   Line workers, managers and even the CEO came together to brainstorm, develop an action plan and make changes. The beauty of these consultants' work, he said, was that "they didn't just give us a fish; they taught us how to fish." Most consultants tell you what to do, he added, but this group helps you see what is needed and helps accomplish it. "As a result of our relationship," he said, "I have been able to build a new culture in my organization that breeds continuous improvement, more productive workers and bottom-line growth."

1. Retail, office developer opens office in Phoenix, Republic news services via Arizona Republic, D2.
   Armstrong Gustine Development of Pittsburgh has opened a regional development office in Phoenix.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]
   The company builds retail and office projects and has had a longstanding relationship with CVS, the pharmacy chain that's now expanding to the [Phoenix] Valley.

2. International - Caterpillar Inc., Republic news services via Arizona Republic, D2.
   ...is building a heavy-machine parts plant in Poland to meet growing demand in Western Europe.... The plant [will be] in Sosnowiec....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

1. [Wall St Journal reverses its line]
   Rockford, Ill., says, 'So what?', pointer blowout (to C1), WSJ, front page.
   More than half of American families don't own stock....
   [Whoa, after all the ludicrous assertions from the WSJ and other financial-industry media to the effect that "the majority of Americans own stock" - based solely on polls that have indicated that at least one person in 51% of American households own some stock. Now the WSJ admits on its front page that not even that basis of the assertions is true.]

2. Corporate-oversight bill passes, smooths way for new lawsuits, by Schmitt, Schroeder & Murray, WSJ, front page.
   [more -]
   Governance bill has major consequences for many - If companies don't follow the rules, they risk being delisted from stock exchanges, by Murray & Schroeder, WSJ, A4.

3. CEOs in handcuffs - Why capitalists are applauding the Adelphia indictments, editorial, WSJ, A10.

• Battered for weeks, Dow enjoys its biggest daily gain [488 points, 6.4%] since '87, by Jonathan Fuerbringer, NYT, front page.
  [But it did this sooo many times in the first nine months of 1929.]

• [1 UPsizing]
  Ireland: New jobs at MBNA, by Brian Lavery, NYT, W1.
  The credit card issuer...will double the size of its Irish operations over the next five years at a cost of 32m euros ($32.2m) and with the support of the Irish government, expanding its presence with 500 new jobs in County Leitrim, a depressed rural area. The company already employs 450 people in Leitrim and its Dublin HQ for marketing, customer service and administration....

• G.O.P. lawmakers bolt Bush's herd - Many skittish over economy as midterm elections near, by Alison Mitchell, NYT, front page.
  WASHINGTON...- Less than four months before the midterm elections, nervous rank-and-file Republicans are going their own way on issue after issue in Congress, fearing about the economy and no longer counting on pResident Bush's wartime approval ratings to carry them back into office. Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are lurching and improvising. At times, they are defying the White House, at other times staking out far different ground from the pResident - and even from each other....
  [and another version of this headline (same story) -]
  Edgy Republicans bolt Bush's camp - Economic woes cut election coattails, by Alison Mitchell, NYT via Arizona Republic, A8.
  [This Republican-state paper may take "loser GOP" stories from the liberal NY Times, but it doesn't have to splash them all over the front page. Here it's buried this one on page 8, but then, that's why some people call the Arizona Republic the "Arizona Repulsive."]
  [Here's part of the reason why the rats are leaving the sinking ship -]
  Economy will not keep president from vacation, Republic wire services, Arizona Republic, A11.
  [and this juicy little revelation from tomorrow's Times -]
  No strong voice on Bush's team, by David Rosenbaum, 7/21/2002 NYT, front page.
  With the stock market plunging the other day and surveys depicting Americans as increasingly worried about the way the Bush administration is dealing with the economy and corporate fraud, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, the administration's main voice on economic issues, was in Kyrgyzstan....
  [Isn't this the same bozo who was recently joyriding around Africa with Bono? Who nail the movie rights to this one? - "The Bozo and the Bono."]

1. AmeriCredit hopes to move call center to Chandler, by Ashley Bach, Arizona Republic, B7.
   ...One of the largest car loan companies in the country wants to set up shop in Chandler AZ early next year; bringing 1,000 new jobs. ...The 3-story building will replace a call center in Tempe, which will shift its 600 jobs to the new facility....
   [Let's conservatively count this as 1000 jobs new to Chandler, 600 of which are old jobs shifted from Tempe, - so, 1000-600= only 400 genuinely new jobs.]

2. Newmark [& Co. Real Estate Inc.] keeps up expansion, WSJ, B6.
   Commercial real-estate brokerage firm...has hired three brokers in Los Angeles and two in Chicago to bolster or open offices in those markets.
   [So, 3+2= 5 new jobs.]
   Earlier this year, Newmark, one of the largest brokerage firms in New York, opened offices in San Francisco, Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas....
   [Plus unspecified new jobs.]

3. Village says, 'Yes, in my backyard,' to rail center, by Michael Brick, NYT, C6.
   ELWOOD, Ill. - ...The Burlington Northern project, to be called the CenterPoint Intermodal Center, will be the largest in the country that combines two or more modes of freight transportation. CenterPoint [Properties Trust] predicts that it will eventually handle 480,000 transfers of freight a year....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

4. Retailer is expanding in Trump Tower, by John Holusha, NYT, C7.
   Asprey, the venerable London-based seller of luxury goods, is planning to triple the space it occupies in Trump Tower, reflecting the broadening of its product line under its new management....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

1. Famous Footwear opens a new store in Goodyear, by Glenn Creno, Arizona Republic, D3.
   The shoe-store chain...opened its 30th Valley store this week in Goodyear AZ. The Wisconsin company said the 10,000-s-ft store at 1428 N. Litchfield Rd carries 15,000 pairs of shoes representing 70 brands. It employs nine people.

2. Best Buy will launch a new store in Goodyear, by Glenn Creno, Arizona Republic, D3.
   The electronics retailer...will open its 11th Arizona store...on Friday. The 30,000-sq-ft store at 1408 N. Litchfield Rd features wider aisles and a transaction center to handle complex purchases. It will carry consumer electronics, appliances, computers and software, music, movies and other merchandise.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

• [1 UPsizing]
  US Air reaches deal to reduce pay of pilots, by Edward Wong, NYT, C7.
  ...The pilots have also agreed to let US Airways increase its number of regional jets [which] are cheaper to operate..\..to 465 [from ??].... In return, the airline's regional jet subsidiaries will hire some of the 1,070 pilots now on furlough..\..a union spokesman, Roy Freundlich, said....
  [This was really a layoff or downsizing, not a furlough, because it was and is indefinite. So we have now an UPsizing, not a TIMEsizing or "return to work" of employees on furlough or leave. And we have "unspecified new jobs."]

• [1 UPsizing]
  Is the slumber over? Signs of life despite a sluggish first half... - Books: More big stores, by David Kirkpatrick, NYT, C8.
  After a 3-year lull, Barnes & Noble is resuming opening giant new bookstores, intensifying the competition among booksellers again and raising the risk of saturating the market.... As growth in online book sales leveled off last year, Barnes & Noble opened 40 new stores. Stephen Riggio, its CEO, says he plans to open as many as 45 this year....
  [Unspecified new jobs - disregarding the potential displacement of smaller, more labor-intensive booksellers.]
  There are now at least 600....

• [1 UPsizing, with 200 new jobs]
  New employer may give Nogales $3.5 mil boost, AP via Arizona Republic, D2.
  Nogales has landed an employer that could pump up the area's economy and diversify its highly seasonal workforce, which depends on agriculture. ICT Group Inc., based in Newtown, Pa., initially plans to hire as many as 200 bilingual workers. But that could grow to as many as 400, said Tim Kanavel, business development representative for the Arizona Dept. of Commerce.... ICT Group employs more than 10,000 workers globally who receive and make telephone calls for customers of Fortune 500 and Fortune 1,000 companies....

1. Gold Circuit's building is twice size of old one, Bloomberg via Arizona Republic, C3.
   The electronics recycler...has a new 83,000-sq-ft corporate HQ in Chandler AZ...at 210 S. Beck Ave. It will house 43 employees at the facility, which is double the size of its former HQ in Tempe....
   [So let's estimate that it will have roughly twice the employees of its former HQ, and therefore 22 new jobs.]

2. Russia: Ford to open car plant, Bloomberg via NYT, C3.
   ...a $150m factory in Vsevolozhsk...next week to cut car prices, which are inflated by import duties. Oksana Khartonuk, a spokeswoman for [the world's No. 2 automaker] in Russia, said the factory would produce 8,000 Ford Focus models this year and would increase that to about 10,000 cars in 2003.
   [Unspecified new jobs.]
   The move is a sign that efforts by Pres. Vladimir Putin to attract foreign investors are starting ot pay off, as the country seeks to increase jobs and scrap Soviet-era technology.

3. Plaza Cos. buys parcel in N. Scottsdale center, Bloomberg via Arizona Republic, C3.
   The [Peoria-based] healthcare firm...has bought a 7.5-acre parcel in north Scotsdale's Perimeter Center, where it plans to develop the Princess Medical Center....
   [Unspecified new jobs.]

• [here's some upsizing that isn't completely good news because it's government upsizing -]
  Government employment rose in 2001 despite slump, by John Bacon, USA Today, 4A.
  State and local governments increased their payrolls last year in spite of the slowing economy. There were nearly 15.4m state and local workers in March 2001, up 2% from March 2000, according to results being released today from an annual Census Bureau survey.
  [If 102% is 15.4m, 100% was 15.1m and the number of new jobs in this sector was 15.4-15.1= 0.3m= 300,000 added jobs.]
  The worker count included 11.2m local government employees. Total payroll in March 2001 was $49.3B, up from $46.7B the previous year, the survey found.
  Elementary and secondary school-related positions, including teachers, continued to be the biggest category of the overall workforce, numbering more than 6.1m and costing $18.4B.